Match Info

AFL - Round 6

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: People First Stadium (Gold Coast)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy


	Gold Coast Suns		Essendon Bombers

	1	2
	1.11	6.5
	1.11	5.5
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↑ (1.05)	6 ↓ (10)

The most likely Over/Under: 187.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-42)

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gold Coast Suns
84.4%

Essendon Bombers
15.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

90.5%

9.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gold Coast Suns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gold Coast Suns's form might have worsened.

Essendon Bombers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Essendon Bombers's recent form is better than expected.

Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 115:73

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (33 - 25)
01:33, El-Hawli S. (G),
03:47, Petracca C. (Behind),
05:08, Petracca C. (G),
08:56, May A. (G),
11:36, Duursma X. (G),
13:03, Walter J. (G),
15:10, Kako I. (G),
20:10, Andrew M. (Behind),
21:35, Long B. (Behind),
25:23, (Behind Rushed),
28:17, King B. (G),
29:24, Long B. (G),
31:07, Long B. (G),
2nd Quarter (25 - 36)
00:17, Powell W. (Behind),
02:14, Gresham J. (G),
04:49, Read E. (G),
05:50, Humphrey B. (Behind),
06:36, (Behind Rushed),
07:41, Read E. (Behind),
08:14, Miller T. (Behind),
09:21, Humphrey B. (Behind),
14:59, King B. (G),
18:04, Wright P. (G),
19:17, Edwards T. (G),
21:04, (Behind Rushed),
22:58, Petracca C. (G),
25:47, May A. (G),
26:53, Merrett Z. (G),
30:29, Duursma X. (G),
3rd Quarter (43 - 28)
02:24, King B. (G),
03:34, Gresham J. (Behind),
04:29, Read E. (G),
06:07, Merrett Z. (Behind),
07:58, Humphrey B. (Behind),
08:31, (Behind Rushed),
12:45, Kako I. (G),
13:55, McGrath A. (G),
17:24, Caddy N. (Behind),
19:37, Robey S. (G),
20:46, Miller T. (G),
22:39, Caldwell J. (G),
24:42, Rogers J. (G),
27:26, Petracca C. (G),
29:01, Uwland Z. (G),
30:45, Walter J. (G),
4th Quarter (18 - 21)
00:22, Weller L. (G),
02:01, Edwards T. (G),
03:40, Caddy N. (G),
05:52, (Behind Rushed),
10:57, Robey S. (G),
12:15, Weller L. (G),
15:19, King B. (Behind),
20:23, King B. (Behind),
21:12, Caldwell J. (Behind),
21:47, Caldwell J. (Behind),
25:07, Read E. (Behind),
26:21, Powell W. (Behind),
27:30, Walter J. (Behind),
29:39, Wright P. (Behind),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gold Coast won 4.

Gold Coast has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Essendon is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Gold Coast is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Gold Coast won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 1415:1500. (average 78.6:83.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gold Coast won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 848:831. (average 77.1:75.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gold Coast Suns
AFL
11.04.26	Sydney Swans - Gold Coast Suns	100:68 ✺
05.04.26	Melbourne Demons - Gold Coast Suns	109:89 ✺
20.03.26	Richmond Tigers - Gold Coast Suns	60:128 ✺
15.03.26	Gold Coast Suns - West Coast Eagles	131:72 ✺
06.03.26	Gold Coast Suns - Geelong Cats	125:69 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWWW
- Essendon Bombers
AFL
10.04.26	Essendon Bombers - Melbourne Demons	113:68 ✺
05.04.26	Western Bulldogs - Essendon Bombers	99:65 ✺
28.03.26	Essendon Bombers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	69:81 ✺
22.03.26	Port Adelaide Power - Essendon Bombers	133:70 ✺
13.03.26	Essendon Bombers - Hawthorn Hawks	83:145 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
27.08.25	Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers	153:58
04.07.25	Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns	74:115
10.08.24	Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns	86:87
02.06.24	Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers	91:80
26.03.23	Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns	108:80
17.07.22	Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns	103:55
15.08.21	Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers	30:98

Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide