The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Hawthorn Hawks 57.4%
Gold Coast Suns 42.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
66%
34%
Our Initial ML Estimation
62.2%
37.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawthorn Hawks's form might have worsened.
Gold Coast Suns has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gold Coast Suns's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (-4.8%)
Hawthorn Hawks - Gold Coast Suns Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 92:85
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (28 - 14)
01:09, Weller L. (G),
02:43, Watson N. (G),
04:57, Lombard L. (Behind),
06:13, Lewis M. (G),
09:49, Gunston J. (G),
12:37, Newcombe J. (Behind),
14:29, Macdonald C. (Behind),
18:37, (Behind Rushed),
20:22, Rioli D. (Behind),
21:55, Maginness F. (G),
25:53, Ugle-Hagan J. (G),
27:34, (Behind Rushed),
2nd Quarter (34 - 25)
01:53, D'Ambrosio M. (Behind),
03:15, D'Ambrosio M. (G),
05:32, Gunston J. (G),
07:18, Impey J. (G),
11:00, Gunston J. (G),
14:03, Gunston J. (Behind),
16:27, Macdonald C. (G),
20:12, Weller L. (G),
23:45, Long B. (G),
25:56, Graham W. (Behind),
26:47, Dalton J. (Behind),
29:51, Gunston J. (Behind),
31:28, Humphrey B. (G),
32:32, Long B. (G),
3rd Quarter (19 - 21)
01:18, Lombard L. (Behind),
03:44, Humphrey B. (G),
07:09, Weddle J. (Behind),
08:34, King B. (G),
10:29, Nash C. (G),
11:53, (Behind Rushed),
14:31, Uwland B. (Behind),
16:12, King B. (G),
26:34, Barrass T. (G),
28:30, Gunston J. (G),
4th Quarter (31 - 3)
01:13, Ginnivan J. (G),
02:31, Anderson N. (Behind),
03:42, Amon K. (Behind),
04:37, Lewis M. (Behind),
06:23, King B. (Behind),
07:29, (Behind Rushed),
08:51, Watson N. (G),
12:00, Gunston J. (Behind),
14:47, Gunston J. (Behind),
18:01, Gunston J. (G),
19:07, Macdonald C. (Behind),
19:34, Maginness F. (G),
21:39, Noble J. (Behind),
23:23, Watson N. (Behind),
Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 1.
Hawthorn is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Gold Coast has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Recently, Hawthorn has had a series of home games.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
We predict that Hawthorn will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1401:1297. (average 77.8:72.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 884:561. (average 88.4:56.1).