Match Info

AFL - Round 7

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: People First Stadium (Gold Coast)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy


	Gold Coast Suns		Sydney Swans

	1	2
	1.42	3
	1.44	2.54
	1.52	2.46
	1.44	2.62
	1.39	2.85	Watch
	1.44	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.53)	2.67 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 176.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-16)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gold Coast Suns
64.9%

Sydney Swans
35.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gold Coast Suns has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Sydney Swans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gold Coast Suns that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney Swans than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sydney Swans could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Gold Coast Suns - Sydney Swans Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Gold Coast will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 96:80

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (14 - 39)
02:59, Powell W. (Behind),
05:48, Heeney I. (Behind),
06:52, King B. (G),
08:49, Ladhams P. (G),
10:23, McLean H. (G),
12:19, Warner C. (G),
15:05, Lloyd J. (Behind),
17:16, Heeney I. (G),
19:57, Long B. (Behind),
20:28, Humphrey B. (G),
24:39, Warner C. (G),
29:58, Heeney I. (Behind),
32:07, Jordon J. (G),
2nd Quarter (28 - 20)
01:01, Cleary C. (Behind),
03:25, Rioli D. (G),
05:06, Humphrey B. (G),
06:27, (Behind Rushed),
08:09, Humphrey B. (Behind),
09:09, (Behind Rushed),
10:38, Witts J. (Behind),
13:06, Campbell B. (G),
15:15, Lloyd J. (Behind),
17:46, Warner C. (G),
20:53, Campbell B. (G),
25:14, Walter J. (G),
27:55, Walter J. (G),
3rd Quarter (42 - 1)
00:45, Weller L. (Behind),
02:44, King B. (G),
04:35, Walter J. (Behind),
08:52, Walter J. (G),
10:27, Rioli D. (G),
12:23, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
13:41, Long B. (G),
20:29, Francis A. (Behind),
21:34, Humphrey B. (G),
22:52, Miller T. (Behind),
25:59, Read E. (Behind),
29:13, King B. (G),
31:41, Read E. (Behind),
4th Quarter (33 - 19)
00:30, Rowell M. (G),
03:16, Holman N. (G),
05:15, King B. (G),
11:58, Campbell B. (Behind),
13:27, King B. (G),
15:15, Blakey N. (G),
20:09, Blakey N. (G),
22:15, Blakey N. (G),
25:54, Read E. (Behind),
27:31, Humphrey B. (G),
30:16, Long B. (Behind),
31:46, Miller T. (Behind),

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gold Coast won 1.

Gold Coast is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Sydney is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gold Coast could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Gold Coast have a series of guest games.

Gold Coast will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Gold Coast to win the game is with odds 1.47.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Gold Coast won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 14 matches and goals 1195:1735 (average 62.9:91.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Gold Coast won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 380:535 (average 54.3:76.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gold Coast Suns
AFL
19.04.25	Richmond Tigers - Gold Coast Suns	80:69 ✺
11.04.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Gold Coast Suns	89:141 ✺
04.04.25	Gold Coast Suns - Adelaide Crows	91:90 ✺
28.03.25	Melbourne Demons - Gold Coast Suns	62:120 ✺
16.03.25	West Coast Eagles - Gold Coast Suns	49:136 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWWWW
- Sydney Swans
AFL
20.04.25	Sydney Swans - Port Adelaide Power	77:85 ✺
11.04.25	Collingwood Magpies - Sydney Swans	109:78 ✺
05.04.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Sydney Swans	52:117 ✺
23.03.25	Fremantle Dockers - Sydney Swans	65:68 ✺
15.03.25	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	82:86 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

AAMI Community Series
28.02.25	Gold Coast Suns - Sydney Swans	63:84
AFL
20.04.24	Sydney Swans - Gold Coast Suns	110:57
11.08.23	Sydney Swans - Gold Coast Suns	114:90
18.03.23	Gold Coast Suns - Sydney Swans	61:110
06.05.22	Sydney Swans - Gold Coast Suns	61:75
20.08.21	Sydney Swans - Gold Coast Suns	136:49
23.04.21	Gold Coast Suns - Sydney Swans	100:60

Gold Coast Suns - Sydney Swans: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide