Match Info

AFL - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Sydney Cricket Ground (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+


	Sydney Swans		Brisbane Lions

	1	X	2
	3.85		1.27
	3.35	100.00	1.28
				Watch
	3.5		1.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.57 ↓ (3.7)	33.33 ↓ (100)	1.28 ↑ (1.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 185.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-67)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sydney Swans
25.7%

Draw
2.7%

Brisbane Lions
71.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.9%

0.9%

74.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sydney Swans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Brisbane (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB, 2Q - Brisbane (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Brisbane (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 60:127

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (42 - 16)
00:50, Serong J. (Behind),
02:00, McDonald L. (Behind),
04:31, McDonald L. (G),
06:18, McLean H. (Behind),
08:32, Dunkley J. (Behind),
09:49, (Behind Rushed),
11:04, Curnow C. (G),
13:31, Hipwood E. (G),
14:43, Papley T. (G),
16:57, Roberts M. (G),
18:42, McDonald L. (G),
20:07, Papley T. (G),
22:34, Dattoli J. (Behind),
25:02, Dattoli J. (Behind),
25:44, Morris L. (Behind),
26:27, Curnow C. (Behind),
31:06, (Behind Rushed),
31:34, Ashcroft L. (G),
2nd Quarter (26 - 22)
02:24, Cameron C. (Behind),
02:52, Morris L. (Behind),
04:07, Allen O. (G),
06:53, Serong J. (Behind),
10:06, Allen O. (G),
12:50, McLean H. (G),
14:36, Curnow C. (G),
17:23, (Behind Rushed),
19:36, McDonald L. (G),
21:36, Hipwood E. (G),
26:43, Berry J. (Behind),
28:32, Bailey Z. (Behind),
31:11, McLean H. (G),
3rd Quarter (41 - 25)
01:51, Dunkley J. (G),
02:53, Papley T. (G),
04:54, Cootee B. (Behind),
06:34, Ashcroft W. (Behind),
10:10, Berry J. (G),
11:33, Hanily T. (Behind),
13:48, Allen O. (G),
16:02, McDonald L. (G),
20:33, McDonald L. (Behind),
21:33, Papley T. (G),
23:44, Papley T. (G),
29:59, Draper S. (G),
31:05, Gulden E. (G),
32:11, Papley T. (Behind),
32:49, Curnow C. (G),
34:30, Campbell B. (Behind),
4th Quarter (32 - 25)
02:12, McLean H. (G),
04:10, Allen O. (G),
05:20, Curnow C. (G),
07:31, McKenna C. (G),
11:10, Rowbottom J. (Behind),
14:27, Curnow C. (G),
17:07, (Behind Rushed),
19:33, Morris L. (G),
24:16, Rayner C. (Behind),
26:06, McDonald L. (G),
29:27, McDonald L. (G),
32:08, Morris L. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 2.

Sydney is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Brisbane is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sydney may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Brisbane is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Sydney will win today's game, with odds of 3.62.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1712:1609. (average 85.6:80.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sydney won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 721:744. (average 80.1:82.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sydney Swans
AFL
23.08.26	Sydney Swans - North Melbourne Kangaroos	122:70 ✺
16.08.26	Essendon Bombers - Sydney Swans	76:112 ✺
08.08.26	Sydney Swans - Port Adelaide Power	167:70 ✺
31.07.26	St Kilda Saints - Sydney Swans	88:107 ✺
25.07.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Sydney Swans	88:139 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWW
- Brisbane Lions
AFL
21.08.26	Collingwood Magpies - Brisbane Lions	96:159 ✺
15.08.26	Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns	95:53 ✺
07.08.26	Brisbane Lions - Hawthorn Hawks	125:58 ✺
01.08.26	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	154:78 ✺
25.07.26	Brisbane Lions - Port Adelaide Power	126:67 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
25.06.26	Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans	126:83
14.03.26	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	104:60
09.08.25	Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans	90:92
15.03.25	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	82:86
28.09.24	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	60:120
20.07.24	Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans	79:77
AAMI Community Series
29.02.24	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	56:81

Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide