Match Info

AFL Women - Round 5

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Kennedy Community Centre (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 3


	Hawthorn Hawks		Western Bulldogs

	1	X	2
	1.7		2.18
	1.60	50.00	2.25
	1.59		2.17
	1.63		2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.55)	12.5 ↓ (50)	2.21 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 87.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-39)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawthorn Hawks
53.5%

Draw
7%

Western Bulldogs
39.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.2%

1.8%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawthorn Hawks's form might have worsened.

Western Bulldogs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 64:25

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (7 - 12)
2nd Quarter (2 - 8)
3rd Quarter (31 - 0)
4th Quarter (1 - 10)

Preview

Hawthorn might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 67:86. (average 22.3:28.7).

Including home match between the teams, Hawthorn won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:37.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
4	Western Bulldogs W	10	8	0	2	455:323	140.87	32
10	Hawthorn Hawks W	10	5	0	5	461:454	101.54	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawthorn Hawks Women
AFL Women
05.09.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows	39:67 ✺
30.08.26	Collingwood Magpies - Hawthorn Hawks	26:54 ✺
23.08.26	Port Adelaide Power - Hawthorn Hawks	33:65 ✺
13.08.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons	41:60 ✺
15.11.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues	33:79 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWLL
- Western Bulldogs Women
AFL Women
04.09.26	Western Bulldogs - Sydney Swans	60:33 ✺
28.08.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Western Bulldogs	70:23 ✺
22.08.26	Western Bulldogs - Richmond Tigers	48:37 ✺
15.08.26	Gold Coast Suns - Western Bulldogs	14:40 ✺
02.11.25	St Kilda Saints - Western Bulldogs	27:72 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
30.08.25	Western Bulldogs - Hawthorn Hawks	10:14
09.09.23	Western Bulldogs - Hawthorn Hawks	39:46
17.09.22	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	7:37

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