Match Info

AFL Women - Round 4

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Kennedy Community Centre (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 4


	Hawthorn Hawks		Adelaide Crows

	1	X	2
	1.44		2.8
	1.45		2.55
	1.47		2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.62)	↓	2.67 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 93.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawthorn Hawks
64.7%

Adelaide Crows
35.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.1%

1.8%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawthorn Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hawthorn Hawks's performance.

Adelaide Crows has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Adelaide Crows might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 50:45

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (11 - 26)
2nd Quarter (3 - 21)
3rd Quarter (6 - 8)
4th Quarter (19 - 12)

Preview

Adelaide may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Hawthorn will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 59:106. (average 29.5:53).

Including home match between the teams, Hawthorn won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 27:48.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
9	Adelaide Crows W	10	5	0	5	470:459	102.40	20
10	Hawthorn Hawks W	10	5	0	5	461:454	101.54	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawthorn Hawks Women
AFL Women
30.08.26	Collingwood Magpies - Hawthorn Hawks	26:54 ✺
23.08.26	Port Adelaide Power - Hawthorn Hawks	33:65 ✺
13.08.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons	41:60 ✺
15.11.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues	33:79 ✺
07.11.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Hawthorn Hawks	42:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLLL
- Adelaide Crows Women
AFL Women
29.08.26	Adelaide Crows - West Coast Eagles	60:43 ✺
23.08.26	Carlton Blues - Adelaide Crows	50:23 ✺
15.08.26	Adelaide Crows - Sydney Swans	53:61 ✺
14.11.25	Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows	60:49 ✺
08.11.25	Adelaide Crows - St Kilda Saints	60:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
14.09.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows	27:48
14.09.24	Adelaide Crows - Hawthorn Hawks	58:32

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