Match Info

AFL Women - Round 1

Date: 13 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Ikon Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Canada	fubo Sports Network
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 4


	Hawthorn Hawks		Melbourne Demons

	1	X	2
	4		1.25
	3.20	75.00	1.32
				Watch
	3.7		1.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.63 ↑ (2.9)	25 ↓ (50)	1.28 ↓ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 88.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-14)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawthorn Hawks
25.1%

Draw
3.6%

Melbourne Demons
71.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.7%

1.8%

66.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawthorn Hawks's form might have worsened.

Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 37:51

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (14 - 31)
2nd Quarter (19 - 9)
3rd Quarter (8 - 1)
4th Quarter (0 - 19)

Preview

In this match, Melbourne is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 34:87. (average 17:43.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 34:87. (average 17:43.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
3	Melbourne Demons W	10	8	0	2	631:356	177.25	32
10	Hawthorn Hawks W	10	5	0	5	461:454	101.54	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawthorn Hawks Women
AFL Women
15.11.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues	33:79 ✺
07.11.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Hawthorn Hawks	42:3 ✺
31.10.25	Hawthorn Hawks - North Melbourne Kangaroos	18:67 ✺
25.10.25	Essendon Bombers - Hawthorn Hawks	26:56 ✺
17.10.25	Port Adelaide Power - Hawthorn Hawks	94:59 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL
- Melbourne Demons Women
AFL Women
21.11.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Melbourne Demons	46:36 ✺
14.11.25	Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows	60:49 ✺
08.11.25	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	43:56 ✺
01.11.25	Geelong Cats - Melbourne Demons	45:59 ✺
25.10.25	Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons	45:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
24.10.24	Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons	23:17
22.09.23	Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons	11:70

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