Match Info

AFL Women - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox Footy
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports Extra


	Hawthorn Hawks		Carlton Blues

	1	2
	2.5	1.54
	2.35	1.52
			Watch
	2.47	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (1.95)	1.53 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 79.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawthorn Hawks
38.5%

Carlton Blues
61.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.3%

52.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

70.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawthorn Hawks's form might have worsened.

Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlton Blues's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hawthorn Hawks that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlton Blues could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Carlton will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 39:41

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (0 - 31)
2nd Quarter (16 - 12)
3rd Quarter (2 - 27)
4th Quarter (15 - 9)

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Hawthorn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Carlton might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Carlton will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 96:50. (average 48:25).

Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 96:50. (average 48:25).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawthorn Hawks Women
AFL Women
07.11.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Hawthorn Hawks	42:3 ✺
31.10.25	Hawthorn Hawks - North Melbourne Kangaroos	18:67 ✺
25.10.25	Essendon Bombers - Hawthorn Hawks	26:56 ✺
17.10.25	Port Adelaide Power - Hawthorn Hawks	94:59 ✺
11.10.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Gold Coast Suns	60:37 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLWLW
- Carlton Blues Women
AFL Women
07.11.25	Carlton Blues - West Coast Eagles	60:19 ✺
31.10.25	West Coast Eagles - Carlton Blues	22:42 ✺
26.10.25	Carlton Blues - Greater Western Sydney Giants	81:35 ✺
18.10.25	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	36:49 ✺
11.10.25	Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues	76:37 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
23.08.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues	30:22
31.08.24	Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues	66:28

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