Match Info

AFL - Round 7

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy


	Richmond Tigers		Melbourne Demons

	1	2
	6.25	1.12
	5	1.12
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.63 ↑ (4.35)	1.12 ↓ (1.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-39)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Richmond Tigers
16.6%

Melbourne Demons
83.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.9%

78.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Richmond Tigers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Richmond Tigers's form might have worsened.

Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Melbourne Demons's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Richmond Tigers - Melbourne Demons Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Richmond will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Melbourne will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 72:111

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (19 - 28)
01:26, Faull J. (G),
02:40, Green S. (Behind),
03:44, Jefferson M. (G),
05:38, Van Rooyen J. (Behind),
06:27, Green S. (G),
13:20, Chandler K. (G),
16:45, Heath M. (Behind),
18:11, Windsor C. (G),
22:13, Van Rooyen J. (Behind),
23:49, Sharp H. (Behind),
25:17, Sparrow T. (G),
27:00, Lefau M. (G),
2nd Quarter (25 - 37)
01:27, Cumming S. (G),
04:48, Campbell S. (G),
07:10, Sharp H. (G),
13:52, Ralphsmith H. (G),
15:28, Laurie B. (G),
20:48, (Behind Rushed),
24:37, Pickett K. (G),
26:40, Langford H. (G),
28:12, Tholstrup K. (Behind),
30:41, Pickett K. (G),
32:29, Mihocek B. (G),
34:54, McAuliffe K. (G),
3rd Quarter (21 - 22)
00:52, Lefau M. (G),
02:26, Mihocek B. (Behind),
04:42, (Behind Rushed),
07:01, Cumming S. (Behind),
07:44, Fritsch B. (Behind),
09:13, Lynch T. (G),
12:53, Mihocek B. (G),
14:49, Campbell S. (G),
16:08, (Behind Rushed),
17:59, Jefferson M. (G),
20:09, Lynch T. (Behind),
20:45, Pickett K. (G),
24:37, Burton T. (Behind),
4th Quarter (7 - 39)
02:26, Jefferson M. (Behind),
03:47, Fritsch B. (G),
05:09, Windsor C. (G),
10:58, Pickett K. (G),
13:09, Fritsch B. (G),
18:21, Gawn M. (Behind),
19:17, Mihocek B. (G),
21:41, Lalor S. (G),
23:10, Gawn M. (Behind),
25:26, Gawn M. (G),
28:35, Campbell S. (Behind),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Richmond won 0.

Richmond is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Melbourne has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Melbourne is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Richmond won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1371:1449. (average 68.6:72.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Richmond won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 711:755. (average 71.1:75.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Richmond Tigers
AFL
18.04.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Richmond Tigers	130:55 ✺
12.04.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Richmond Tigers	131:75 ✺
04.04.26	Richmond Tigers - Port Adelaide Power	48:90 ✺
28.03.26	Fremantle Dockers - Richmond Tigers	103:43 ✺
20.03.26	Richmond Tigers - Gold Coast Suns	60:128 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Melbourne Demons
AFL
19.04.26	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	104:102 ✺
10.04.26	Essendon Bombers - Melbourne Demons	113:68 ✺
05.04.26	Melbourne Demons - Gold Coast Suns	109:89 ✺
29.03.26	Carlton Blues - Melbourne Demons	77:100 ✺
21.03.26	Fremantle Dockers - Melbourne Demons	118:70 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
24.04.25	Melbourne Demons - Richmond Tigers	83:63
24.04.24	Richmond Tigers - Melbourne Demons	42:85
30.07.23	Richmond Tigers - Melbourne Demons	98:130
24.04.23	Melbourne Demons - Richmond Tigers	96:78
AAMI Community Series
04.03.23	Melbourne Demons - Richmond Tigers	121:71
AFL
24.04.22	Richmond Tigers - Melbourne Demons	54:76
24.04.21	Melbourne Demons - Richmond Tigers	82:48

Richmond Tigers - Melbourne Demons: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide