Match Info
AFL - Round 6Date: 19 April 2026, SundayLocation: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | AFL |
 United-kingdom | TNT Sports 3 |
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Melbourne Demons |
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Brisbane Lions |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
4 |
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1.25 |
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3.3 |
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1.28 |
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 Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.65 ↑
(2.9) |
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1.27 ↓
(1.42) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 186.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-25)
- The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Melbourne Demons
25.7% | Brisbane Lions
74.3% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Melbourne Demons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne Demons's form might have worsened.Brisbane Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brisbane Lions's recent form is better than expected.Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 81:106 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Quarter (25 - 25)
- 02:17, Laurie B. (Behind),
- 05:08, Morris L. (G),
- 06:54, Langford H. (G),
- 09:23, Sharp H. (G),
- 12:00, Cameron C. (G),
- 16:29, Fletcher J. (G),
- 18:13, Mihocek B. (G),
- 20:48, Van Rooyen J. (G),
- 24:13, Rayner C. (G),
- 25:58, (Behind Rushed),
- 2nd Quarter (11 - 27)
- 03:18, Allen O. (G),
- 06:40, Morris L. (Behind),
- 08:12, (Behind Rushed),
- 09:04, (Behind Rushed),
- 10:33, Rayner C. (Behind),
- 15:20, Chandler K. (G),
- 17:21, (Behind Rushed),
- 19:07, Cameron C. (G),
- 20:30, Bailey Z. (Behind),
- 21:13, Heath M. (Behind),
- 23:56, Morris L. (G),
- 25:18, Draper S. (G),
- 26:38, Van Rooyen J. (Behind),
- 3rd Quarter (38 - 16)
- 01:58, (Behind Rushed),
- 03:25, Chandler K. (Behind),
- 05:01, Langford H. (G),
- 06:51, Rayner C. (Behind),
- 07:47, Sharp H. (G),
- 09:52, Steele J. (G),
- 13:31, Mihocek B. (G),
- 15:58, Dunkley J. (Behind),
- 18:49, Fritsch B. (G),
- 20:49, Lohmann K. (G),
- 23:02, McCluggage H. (Behind),
- 25:59, Fritsch B. (G),
- 28:13, (Behind Rushed),
- 31:23, Ashcroft W. (G),
- 4th Quarter (30 - 34)
- 00:42, Bailey Z. (Behind),
- 01:44, McCluggage H. (G),
- 06:15, Reville B. (Behind),
- 08:41, Van Rooyen J. (G),
- 10:59, Chandler K. (G),
- 12:51, Chandler K. (G),
- 14:33, Rayner C. (G),
- 17:08, Van Rooyen J. (G),
- 20:01, Ashcroft L. (Behind),
- 21:53, McCarthy L. (G),
- 24:06, Langford H. (G),
- 26:23, Morris L. (G),
- 27:27, Cameron C. (G),
- 29:13, Rayner C. (Behind),
Preview
Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 2.Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.Brisbane may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Brisbane is considered a favorite.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1763:1613. (average 88.2:80.7).Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 1118:986. (average 86:75.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AFL | | | 18.05.25 | Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons | 88:99 | | 28.06.24 | Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons | 86:81 | | 11.04.24 | Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions | 60:82 | | 14.07.23 | Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions | 105:104 | | 24.03.23 | Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons | 93:82 | | 09.09.22 | Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions | 79:92 | | 19.08.22 | Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons | 57:115 |
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