Match Info
AFL - Round 5Date: 10 April 2026, FridayLocation: Adelaide Oval (Adelaide)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | AFL |
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Essendon Bombers |
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Melbourne Demons |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
4.35 |
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1.22 |
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 |
3.6 |
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1.24 |
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 Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.98 ↑
(3.75) |
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1.23 ↓
(1.28) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 180.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-27)
- The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Essendon Bombers
23.6% | Melbourne Demons
76.4% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Essendon Bombers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)Essendon Bombers - Melbourne Demons Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Melbourne Demons will win
(5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.Expected Score (Market Odds): 77:104 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Quarter (23 - 19)
- 02:54, (Behind Rushed),
- 05:16, (Behind Rushed),
- 06:44, Edwards T. (G),
- 08:43, Fritsch B. (G),
- 10:43, Pickett L. (G),
- 13:38, Caddy N. (Behind),
- 15:33, Durham S. (G),
- 17:31, Sharp H. (Behind),
- 19:16, Caddy N. (Behind),
- 20:25, Edwards T. (Behind),
- 24:38, Tsatas E. (G),
- 28:27, Sharp H. (G),
- 2nd Quarter (21 - 31)
- 06:25, Gawn M. (G),
- 09:29, Pickett K. (G),
- 12:39, Sparrow T. (G),
- 16:07, May A. (G),
- 18:48, Chandler K. (G),
- 20:45, (Behind Rushed),
- 21:56, Mihocek B. (G),
- 23:38, May A. (Behind),
- 25:15, Durham S. (G),
- 27:24, Farrow J. (Behind),
- 29:27, Van Rooyen J. (Behind),
- 30:08, Kako I. (G),
- 3rd Quarter (37 - 9)
- 03:50, Day-Wicks A. (G),
- 08:17, Petty H. (Behind),
- 10:11, Steele J. (Behind),
- 11:46, Roberts A. (G),
- 14', Gresham J. (Behind),
- 15:13, Caddy N. (G),
- 19:21, Pickett K. (G),
- 24:40, Kako I. (G),
- 26:35, Gresham J. (G),
- 27:59, Edwards T. (G),
- 29:07, (Behind Rushed),
- 4th Quarter (32 - 9)
- 06:19, Pickett K. (Behind),
- 06:58, Langford K. (Behind),
- 08:00, Merrett Z. (G),
- 09:47, May A. (G),
- 11:49, Caddy N. (G),
- 13:40, Duursma X. (G),
- 17:06, Langford H. (G),
- 18:45, Van Rooyen J. (Behind),
- 21:13, Caddy N. (Behind),
- 25:45, Wright P. (G),
- 29:16, (Behind Rushed),
Preview
An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 2. In this match, Melbourne is a strong favorite.In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1206:1101. (average 80.4:73.4).Including home matches between the teams, Essendon won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 766:674. (average 76.6:67.4).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AFL | | | 12.04.25 | Melbourne Demons - Essendon Bombers | 57:96 | | 13.07.24 | Melbourne Demons - Essendon Bombers | 84:67 | | 15.04.23 | Essendon Bombers - Melbourne Demons | 104:77 | | 01.04.22 | Melbourne Demons - Essendon Bombers | 99:70 | | 26.06.21 | Essendon Bombers - Melbourne Demons | 57:68 | | 19.09.20 | Essendon Bombers - Melbourne Demons | 49:68 | | 05.04.19 | Melbourne Demons - Essendon Bombers | 112:130 |
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