Match Info

AFL - Round 8

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Australia	AFL, Fox Footy, Seven Network
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 4


	St Kilda Saints		Fremantle Dockers

	1	2
	2.68	1.5
	2.31	1.53
	1.83	1.93
	2.2	1.62
	2.47	1.55
	2.36	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (1.83)	1.61 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

St Kilda Saints
41%

Fremantle Dockers
59%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.8%

48.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St Kilda Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St Kilda Saints's form might have worsened.

Fremantle Dockers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fremantle Dockers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St Kilda Saints, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fremantle Dockers than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fremantle Dockers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

St Kilda Saints - Fremantle Dockers Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Fremantle will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fremantle (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:90

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (14 - 6)
01:22, Hill B. (G),
06:09, Wilson D. (Behind),
07:12, Young H. (G),
14:44, Collard L. (Behind),
23:04, Higgins J. (G),
2nd Quarter (13 - 1)
00:43, (Behind Rushed),
02:03, Owens M. (G),
04:45, Wilson D. (G),
12:55, Frederick M. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (27 - 8)
06:28, Sharman C. (G),
09:30, Dudley I. (G),
11:29, Sharman C. (G),
16:34, Windhager M. (Behind),
18:40, Reid M. (Behind),
20:05, Collard L. (G),
22:54, Marshall R. (Behind),
24:51, Dudley I. (Behind),
25:56, Sharman C. (G),
29:01, Sharman C. (Behind),
4th Quarter (40 - 18)
01:33, Owens M. (G),
03:50, Amiss J. (G),
09:41, Sharman C. (G),
12:08, Sharman C. (Behind),
14:37, Hall M. (Behind),
17:59, Amiss J. (G),
19:16, Caminiti A. (Behind),
20:29, Marshall R. (Behind),
22:04, Steele J. (G),
24:20, Garcia H. (G),
25:55, Owens M. (G),
31:19, Narkle Q. (G),
32:34, Caminiti A. (G),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 3.

In recent matches, St Kilda has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fremantle is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Fremantle will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1183:1091. (average 73.9:68.2).

Including home matches between the teams, St Kilda won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 761:617. (average 76.1:61.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St Kilda Saints
AFL
25.04.25	St Kilda Saints - Brisbane Lions	73:118 ✺
20.04.25	Western Bulldogs - St Kilda Saints	127:56 ✺
13.04.25	St Kilda Saints - Greater Western Sydney Giants	82:110 ✺
06.04.25	Port Adelaide Power - St Kilda Saints	72:89 ✺
29.03.25	St Kilda Saints - Richmond Tigers	135:53 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLLWW
- Fremantle Dockers
AFL
25.04.25	Fremantle Dockers - Adelaide Crows	85:67 ✺
18.04.25	Melbourne Demons - Fremantle Dockers	107:97 ✺
12.04.25	Richmond Tigers - Fremantle Dockers	47:108 ✺
06.04.25	Fremantle Dockers - Western Bulldogs	97:81 ✺
30.03.25	West Coast Eagles - Fremantle Dockers	68:106 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
18.05.24	St Kilda Saints - Fremantle Dockers	55:72
19.03.23	St Kilda Saints - Fremantle Dockers	67:52
09.07.22	St Kilda Saints - Fremantle Dockers	70:111
27.03.22	Fremantle Dockers - St Kilda Saints	55:65
21.08.21	St Kilda Saints - Fremantle Dockers	107:49
10.07.20	Fremantle Dockers - St Kilda Saints	79:73
10.08.19	St Kilda Saints - Fremantle Dockers	72:69

St Kilda Saints - Fremantle Dockers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide