Match Info

MLB - Wild Card - Final

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Yankee Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
Usa	NBCSN
World	MLB.TV


	New York Yankees		Boston Red Sox

	1	2
	1.70	2.10	Watch
	1.71	2.20
	1.70	2.18
	1.78	2.20
			Watch
	1.77	2.16
	1.78	2.19	Watch
	1.74	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.7)	2.17 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York Yankees
55.5%

Boston Red Sox
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York Yankees has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Boston Red Sox has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York Yankees than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boston Red Sox than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox Predictions

Users Predictions: New York Yankees will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 5:5

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Lineups

Batters
22. Rice B.	37. Jones J.
35. Bellinger C.	31. Rutschman A.
26. Garcia L.	40. Contreras W.
78. Jones S.	52. Abreu W.
96. Lombard Jr. G.	3. Rafaela C.
13. Chisholm J.	5. Durbin C.
12. Grisham T.	20. Sogard N.
28. Wells A.	10. Story T.
19. McMahon R.	18. Eaton N.
Pitchers
54. Fried M.	54. Gray S.
Coaches
. Boone A.	. Tracy C.

Preview

Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY Yankees won 4.

NY Yankees is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Boston have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Both teams have recently been through a succession of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, NY Yankees has recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 85:49 (averaging 4.3:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for NY Yankees against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 51:16 goals (averaging 5.1:1.6 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Boston Red Sox - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 43.8%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York Yankees
MLB
29.09.26	New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox	9:0 ✺
27.09.26	New York Yankees - Baltimore Orioles	Canceled ✺
25.09.26	New York Yankees - Baltimore Orioles	6:3 ✺
25.09.26	New York Yankees - Baltimore Orioles	2:10 ✺
24.09.26	New York Yankees - Tampa Bay Rays	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 W?WLW
- Boston Red Sox
MLB
29.09.26	New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox	9:0 ✺
27.09.26	Boston Red Sox - Chicago Cubs	2:6 ✺
25.09.26	Boston Red Sox - Chicago Cubs	2:0 ✺
25.09.26	Boston Red Sox - Chicago Cubs	4:3 ✺
24.09.26	Boston Red Sox - Cleveland Guardians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

MLB
29.09.26	New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox	9:0
30.08.26	New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox	16:1
29.08.26	New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox	9:2
29.08.26	New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox	6:1
28.08.26	New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox	1:0
28.06.26	Boston Red Sox - New York Yankees	5:4
27.06.26	Boston Red Sox - New York Yankees	4:1

New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide