Match Info

WNBL Women - Round 12

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Adelaide Arena (Adelaide)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	9Now, ESPN


	Adelaide Lightning		Townsville Fire

	1	2
	8.5	1.02
	8.24	1.03
	8.09	1.04	Watch
	9.5	1.03
	9.5	1.04
	11	1.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.14 ↑ (6.84)	1.03 ↓ (1.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 155.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-18)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide Lightning
10.1%

Townsville Fire
89.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.2%

86.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Townsville Fire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Adelaide Lightning - Townsville Fire Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 69:87

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Feagin S.	23. Ellis A.
4. Loughridge D.	12. Fowler A.
11. Pupuke-Robati S.	9. Froling A. (C)
7. Talbot S. (C)	33. Olsen L.
3. Whittaker C.	1. Sowah M.
Substitutes
41. Brazel T.	21. Anderson P.
15. Fejo J.	16. Crichton D.
13. Freer J.	11. Forster C.
10. Freer M.	0. Horvat C.
6. Porter R.	25. Van Es C.
31. Strawbridge A.
1. Tofaeono E.
Coaches
. Parham Ammar A.	. Seebohm S.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 0.

Adelaide is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Townsville has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Adelaide may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Adelaide has had a series of away games.

Recently, Townsville has had a series of home games.

In this match, Townsville is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 1359:1411. (average 68:70.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 553:578. (average 61.4:64.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide Lightning
Australian WNBL
02.01.26	Perth Lynx - Adelaide Lightning	93:75 ✺
27.12.25	Southside Flyers - Adelaide Lightning	85:72 ✺
21.12.25	Adelaide Lightning - Perth Lynx	82:109 ✺
19.12.25	Bendigo Spirit - Adelaide Lightning	75:67 ✺
13.12.25	Sydney Flames - Adelaide Lightning	75:94 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLLLW
- Townsville Fire
Australian WNBL
31.12.25	Townsville Fire - Bendigo Spirit	61:73 ✺
23.12.25	Townsville Fire - Sydney Flames	79:74 ✺
19.12.25	Sydney Flames - Townsville Fire	76:96 ✺
14.12.25	Townsville Fire - Perth Lynx	81:97 ✺
06.12.25	Townsville Fire - Sydney Flames	93:60 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian WNBL
25.11.25	Adelaide Lightning - Townsville Fire	64:90
15.11.25	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	103:69
05.02.25	Adelaide Lightning - Townsville Fire	63:90
29.11.24	Adelaide Lightning - Townsville Fire	68:69
23.11.24	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	53:47
20.01.24	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	75:90
29.11.23	Townsville Fire - Adelaide Lightning	67:61

Adelaide Lightning - Townsville Fire: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide