Match Info

Basket League - Play Out - Round 4

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Alexandreio Mellathron (Thessaloniki)


	Aris		Lavrio

	1	2
			Watch
	1.36	2.95
	1.35	3.25	Watch
	1.35	3.15
	1.37	3.09	Watch
	1.37	3.2
	1.37	3.03	Watch
	1.35	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.5)	3.13 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 163.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aris
69.7%

Lavrio
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aris's performance.

Lavrio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lavrio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aris than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aris that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lavrio than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lavrio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Aris - Lavrio Predictions

Users Predictions: Aris will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aris will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:79

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Figueroa L.	7. Mouratos V. (C)
21. Willis D.	20. Vaughn R.
23. Roberts J.	22. Wahab Q.
22. Woodbury T.	3. Thornton M.
4. Toliopoulos V. (C)	4. Koniaris A.
Substitutes
13. Bochoridis E.	24. Forrest J.
25. Fillios G.	19. Gontikas K.
12. Giouzelis G.	14. Patrikis A.
55. Hodge D.	5. Payton C.
96. Juiston S.	12. Sherman T.
17. Vissariou T.	0. Tsamis P.
	13. Zaras T.
Coaches
. Vetoulas N.	. Mexas K.

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 9 and 11)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aris won 3.

Aris is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lavrio has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Aris is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aris won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1590:1490. (average 79.5:74.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aris won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 836:707. (average 83.6:70.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BC Aris Thessaloniki
Greek Basket League A1
26.04.25	Maroussi Athens - Aris	91:68 ✺
12.04.25	Aris - Kolossos Rodou	84:86 ✺
05.04.25	Lavrio - Aris	75:89 ✺
01.04.25	Aris - Peristeri BC	78:83 ✺
29.03.25	Panionios - Aris	92:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWLL
- Lavrio BC
Greek Basket League A1
26.04.25	Lavrio - Kolossos Rodou	74:83 ✺
12.04.25	Maroussi Athens - Lavrio	88:83 ✺
05.04.25	Lavrio - Aris	75:89 ✺
29.03.25	Peristeri BC - Lavrio	90:77 ✺
23.03.25	Panathinaikos - Lavrio	98:70 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Greek Basket League A1
05.04.25	Lavrio - Aris	75:89
10.03.25	Aris - Lavrio	82:65
07.12.24	Lavrio - Aris	93:84
23.03.24	Aris - Lavrio	84:60
23.12.23	Lavrio - Aris	91:86 OT
18.03.23	Lavrio - Aris	81:70
04.12.22	Aris - Lavrio	87:61

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