Match Info

Euroleague - Round 25

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Fernando Buesa Arena (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Referee: Radojkovic J. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Europe	Go3 Baltic Euroleague
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Israel	Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Spain	Movistar Plus+
Turkey	S Sport+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Baskonia		Žalgiris Kaunas

	1	2
	1.91	1.83	Watch
	1.9	1.9
	1.95	1.85	Watch
	1.96	1.89
	1.96	1.92	Watch
	1.9	1.8
	1.87	1.99	Watch
	1.86	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.94)	1.89 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baskonia
49.7%

Žalgiris Kaunas
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baskonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Žalgiris Kaunas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baskonia than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris Kaunas than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.3%	0%	38.7%

Baskonia - Žalgiris Kaunas Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Baskonia will win (votes: 19 - 61.3%). Žalgiris will win (votes: 12 - 38.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baskonia: 44.2% – 78.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Baskonia (votes: 13 - 61.9%). Žalgiris (votes: 8 - 38.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 166, OT - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 171.5, OT - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:86

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Diop K.	3. Francisco S.
11. Forrest T.	9. Giedraitis D.
25. Frisch C.	10. Tubelis A.
0. Howard M.	92. Ulanovas E.
17. Radzevicius G.	7. Wright M.
Substitutes
1. Diakite M.	15. Birutis L.
7. Kurucs R.	8. Brazdeikis I.
9. Luwawu-Cabarrot T.	51. Butkevicius A.
5. Omoruyi E.	12. Lo M.
2. Simmons K.	17. Rubstavicius M.
10. Spagnolo M.	91. Sirvydis D.
4. Villar R.	14. Sleva D.
Coaches
. Galbiati P.	. Masiulis T.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Baskonia won 2.

In recent matches, Baskonia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Žalgiris is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Žalgiris may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Baskonia won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1561:1525. (average 78.1:76.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Baskonia won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 792:744. (average 79.2:74.4).

Outrights of Euroleague for now

Zalgiris Kaunas: 3.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	L
8	Zalgiris Kaunas	4	2	2	340:333
19	Baskonia	4	1	3	347:385

Last Results with these Odds

Baskonia - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 49.54%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Saski Baskonia
Spanish ACB League
25.01.26	Baskonia - Joventut Badalona	87:77 ✺
Euroleague
23.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Baskonia	84:71 ✺
20.01.26	Panathinaikos - Baskonia	93:74 ✺
Spanish ACB League
18.01.26	Baskonia - Basquet Manresa	130:85 ✺
Euroleague
15.01.26	Anadolu Efes Pilsen - Baskonia	75:89 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWW
- Žalgiris Kaunas
Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
25.01.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - Nevėžis Kedainiai	88:73 ✺
Euroleague
22.01.26	Olimpia Milano - Žalgiris Kaunas	82:86 ✺
20.01.26	ASVEL Basket - Žalgiris Kaunas	77:96 ✺
Lietuvos King Mindaugas Cup
17.01.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - Jonava	89:63 ✺
Euroleague
15.01.26	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Žalgiris Kaunas	100:97 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
25.11.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Baskonia	82:67
06.03.25	Baskonia - Žalgiris Kaunas	66:65
28.11.24	Žalgiris Kaunas - Baskonia	70:83
21.03.24	Žalgiris Kaunas - Baskonia	94:76
19.10.23	Baskonia - Žalgiris Kaunas	82:99
10.02.23	Žalgiris Kaunas - Baskonia	79:75
23.11.22	Baskonia - Žalgiris Kaunas	93:73

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