Match Info

ACB - Round 16

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Bilbao Arena (Bilbao)

Referee: Mohedas R. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	DAZN
Bulgaria	Diema Sport
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport
France	DAZN France
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Spain	DAZN Espana
United-kingdom	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA


	Bilbao Basket		Canarias

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.08	1.72
	2.03	1.75
	2	1.73
	2.12	1.75	Watch
	2.2	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.16)	1.72 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bilbao Basket
45%

Canarias
55%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

56.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bilbao Basket has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Canarias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bilbao Basket than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Canarias than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.6%	0%	7.4%

Bilbao Basket - Canarias Predictions

Users Predictions: Bilbao Basket will win (25 of 27 users predict this - 92.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.71% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bilbao Basket will win (19 of 19 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 84:86

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
11. Hilliard D.	11. Scrubb T.
10. Krampelj M.	42. Doornekamp A.
32. Hlinason T.	19. Shermadini G.
2. Normantas M.	4. Van Beck W.
3. Frey H.	9. Huertas M.
Substitutes
13. Bagayoko B.	21. Abromaitis T.
5. Errasti B.	33. Alderete H.
22. Font A.	3. Fernandez J.
7. Jaworski J.	6. Fitipaldo B.
19. Pantzar M. J.	31. Giedraitis R.
18. Petrasek L.	35. Guerra F.
12. Zecevic A.	15. Sastre J.
Coaches
. Ponsarnau J.	. Vidorreta T.

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ ACB (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bilbao won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Bilbao may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bilbao has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Bilbao will win today's game, with odds of 2.08.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bilbao won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 1475:1635. (average 73.8:81.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Bilbao won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 673:745. (average 74.8:82.8).

Outrights of Spanish ACB League for now

Tenerife: 2.65% Bilbao: 0.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
5	Bilbao	2	1	1	208:196	2
8	Tenerife	2	1	1	160:156	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bilbao Basket
FIBA Europe Cup
13.01.26	Bilbao Basket - PAOK	95:73 ✺
Spanish ACB League
10.01.26	Bilbao Basket - UCAM Murcia	96:82 ✺
04.01.26	Girona - Bilbao Basket	89:93 ✺
02.01.26	Bilbao Basket - Valencia	72:116 ✺
28.12.25	Bilbao Basket - Barcelona	66:71 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWLL
- CB Canarias
Spanish ACB League
10.01.26	Canarias - Força Lleida CE	87:94 ✺
03.01.26	Joventut Badalona - Canarias	78:67 ✺
30.12.25	Canarias - Granada	80:75 ✺
28.12.25	Canarias - Gran Canaria 2014	70:71 ✺
20.12.25	Girona - Canarias	89:96 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish ACB League
16.03.25	Bilbao Basket - Canarias	65:75
04.01.25	Canarias - Bilbao Basket	86:75
13.04.24	Canarias - Bilbao Basket	101:84
29.10.23	Bilbao Basket - Canarias	93:94 OT
26.04.23	Bilbao Basket - Canarias	60:83
Champions League Basketball
07.03.23	Bilbao Basket - Canarias	72:74
07.02.23	Canarias - Bilbao Basket	78:66

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