Match Info

ACB - Round 15

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Bilbao Arena (Bilbao)

Referee: Esteve Malmierca I. (And)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	DAZN
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	SportKlub 10
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	DAZN France
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Spain	DAZN Espana
United-kingdom	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA


	Bilbao Basket		UCAM Murcia

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.18	1.65	Watch
	2.22	1.63	Watch
	2.1	1.62
	2.31	1.64	Watch
	2.2	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.05)	1.65 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 167.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bilbao Basket
42.9%

UCAM Murcia
57.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

55.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bilbao Basket has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

UCAM Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bilbao Basket than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UCAM Murcia than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Bilbao Basket - UCAM Murcia Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Bilbao will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Murcia will win (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bilbao: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bilbao Basket will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 83:86

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
3. Frey H.	15. Cate E.
11. Hilliard D.	5. DeJulius D.
32. Hlinason T.	31. Ennis D.
10. Krampelj M.	99. Nakic T.
2. Normantas M.	8. Sant-Roos H.
Substitutes
13. Bagayoko B.	0. Cacok D.
5. Errasti B.	13. Falk W.
22. Font A.	1. Forrest M.
7. Jaworski J.	24. Hicks Z.
19. Pantzar M. J.	16. Lopez R.
18. Petrasek L.	12. Radebaugh J.
12. Zecevic A.	2. Raieste S.
Coaches
. Ponsarnau J.	. Alonso S.

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ ACB (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bilbao won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bilbao won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 1493:1634. (average 74.7:81.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bilbao won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 698:696. (average 77.6:77.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
8	Bilbao	2	1	1	208:196	2
13	Murcia	3	1	2	254:268	2

Last Results with these Odds

Bilbao Basket - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.04%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bilbao Basket
Spanish ACB League
04.01.26	Girona - Bilbao Basket	89:93 ✺
02.01.26	Bilbao Basket - Valencia	72:116 ✺
28.12.25	Bilbao Basket - Barcelona	66:71 ✺
21.12.25	CB Breogán - Bilbao Basket	100:99 ✺
FIBA Europe Cup
17.12.25	Prievidza - Bilbao Basket	46:83 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLW
- UCAM Murcia
Spanish ACB League
03.01.26	Gran Canaria 2014 - UCAM Murcia	77:72 ✺
30.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Real Madrid	80:91 ✺
27.12.25	Granada - UCAM Murcia	79:86 ✺
21.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Valencia	92:80 ✺
FIBA Europe Cup
17.12.25	Trefl Sopot - UCAM Murcia	77:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish ACB League
27.04.25	Bilbao Basket - UCAM Murcia	80:83 OT
05.10.24	UCAM Murcia - Bilbao Basket	89:83 OT
03.02.24	UCAM Murcia - Bilbao Basket	96:76
08.10.23	Bilbao Basket - UCAM Murcia	77:68
14.05.23	UCAM Murcia - Bilbao Basket	67:55
Champions League Basketball
21.03.23	Bilbao Basket - UCAM Murcia	67:71
31.01.23	UCAM Murcia - Bilbao Basket	90:72

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