Match Info

NCAA

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	DAZN
Finland	DAZN
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	California Golden Bears		North Carolina Tar Heels

	1	2
	3.35	1.34
	3.25	1.3
	2.83	1.39	Watch
	3.4	1.3
	3.23	1.34
	3.65	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.21)	1.33 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 148.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

California Golden Bears
28.8%

North Carolina Tar Heels
71.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

California Golden Bears has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that California Golden Bears's form might have worsened.

North Carolina Tar Heels has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting North Carolina Tar Heels's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for California Golden Bears than the current prediction. (+18.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for California Golden Bears, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Carolina Tar Heels than the current prediction. (-18.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for North Carolina Tar Heels, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

California Golden Bears - North Carolina Tar Heels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 71:77

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Preview

California is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

North Carolina has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, North Carolina is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, California won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 53:79.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- California Golden Bears basketball
NCAA College Basketball
14.01.26	California Golden Bears - Duke Blue Devils	56:71 ✺
10.01.26	Virginia Tech Hokies - California Golden Bears	78:75 ✺
07.01.26	Virginia Cavaliers - California Golden Bears	84:60 ✺
02.01.26	California Golden Bears - Notre Dame Fighting Irish	72:71 ✺
30.12.25	California Golden Bears - Louisville Cardinals	70:90 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLLWL
- North Carolina Tar Heels basketball
NCAA College Basketball
14.01.26	Stanford Cardinal - North Carolina Tar Heels	95:90 ✺
10.01.26	North Carolina Tar Heels - Wake Forest Demon Deacons	87:84 ✺
03.01.26	Southern Methodist Mustangs - North Carolina Tar Heels	97:83 ✺
30.12.25	North Carolina Tar Heels - Florida State Seminoles	79:66 ✺
22.12.25	North Carolina Tar Heels - East Carolina Pirates	99:51 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
15.01.25	North Carolina Tar Heels - California Golden Bears	79:53

California Golden Bears - North Carolina Tar Heels: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide