Match Info

WNBL Women - Round 8

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Geelong Arena (Geelong)


	Geelong Venom		Canberra Capitals

	1	2
			Watch
	1.53	2.25
	1.57	2.27
	1.66	2.06	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.68	2.13
	1.62	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.4)	2.19 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 155.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Geelong Venom
57.4%

Canberra Capitals
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.6%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Geelong Venom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Geelong Venom's form might have worsened.

Canberra Capitals has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Canberra Capitals's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Venom than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Geelong Venom, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra Capitals than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Canberra Capitals, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Geelong Venom - Canberra Capitals Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 79:77

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Clinch-Hoycard M.	15. Aokuso Z. (C)
23. Heal S.	46. Blicavs Sa.
54. Holmes M.	24. Brancatisano I.
9. Sharp A. (C)	21. Clark J.
4. Shelley J.	30. Sissoko K.
Substitutes
8. Arlen A.	9. Bobongie M.
5. Brett E.	5. Melbourne J.
11. Mole T.	3. Morrell T.
2. Rotunno L.	10. Munger N.
7. Taylor G.	13. Puoch N.
3. Woolley G.	8. Russell Z.
Coaches
. Lucas C.	. Goriss P.

Preview

Geelong Venom has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Canberra's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Canberra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Geelong Venom won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 206:253. (average 68.7:84.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Geelong Venom won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 137:164. (average 68.5:82).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Geelong Venom
Australian WNBL
05.12.25	Bendigo Spirit - Geelong Venom	93:58 ✺
26.11.25	Sydney Flames - Geelong Venom	97:94 OT ✺
21.11.25	Adelaide Lightning - Geelong Venom	99:93 OT ✺
14.11.25	Geelong Venom - Southside Flyers	66:54 ✺
11.11.25	Geelong Venom - Perth Lynx	88:69 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLWW
- Canberra Capitals
Australian WNBL
29.11.25	Canberra Capitals - Perth Lynx	67:91 ✺
22.11.25	Townsville Fire - Canberra Capitals	101:61 ✺
14.11.25	Canberra Capitals - Sydney Flames	96:56 ✺
08.11.25	Bendigo Spirit - Canberra Capitals	73:71 ✺
06.11.25	Sydney Flames - Canberra Capitals	73:64 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian WNBL
01.02.25	Geelong Venom - Canberra Capitals	77:91
04.01.25	Canberra Capitals - Geelong Venom	89:69
23.11.24	Geelong Venom - Canberra Capitals	60:73

Geelong Venom - Canberra Capitals: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide