Match Info

NBA

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday

Location: Kaseya Center (Miami, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	NBA Global League Pass


	Miami Heat		Denver Nuggets

	1	2
	2.05	1.8	Watch
	2.08	1.75
	2.05	1.84	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.14	1.81
	2	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.46)	1.81 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 243.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miami Heat
46.8%

Denver Nuggets
53.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

61.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

61.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Miami Heat's performance.

Denver Nuggets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Denver Nuggets might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Miami Heat that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denver Nuggets than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Denver Nuggets could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52%	0%	48%

Miami Heat - Denver Nuggets Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Miami will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%). Denver will win (votes: 12 - 52.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Denver: 31.8% – 72.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Denver (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5, 1st Half - Miami (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5, OT - Miami (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 245.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Denver (votes: 4 - 30.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 121:123

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Wiggins A.	21. Jones S.
13. Adebayo B.	8. Watson P.
7. Ware K.	15. Jokic N.
24. Powell N.	10. Hardaway T.
45. Mitchell D.	27. Murray J.
Substitutes
0. Fontecchio S.	11. Brown B.
15. Gardner M.	14. Holmes D.
14. Herro T.	1. Jones C.
25. Jakucionis K.	22. Nnaji Z.
11. Jaquez Jr. J.	24. Pickett J.
16. Johnson K.	3. Strawther J.
5. Jovic N.	5. Tyson H.
9. Larsson P.	17. Valanciunas J.
12. Smith D.
Coaches
. Spoelstra E.	. Adelman D.

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Miami won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Miami may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Miami: Adebayo B. (Back Injury) Herro T. (Toe Injury) Rozier T. (Suspended)

There will not play in Denver: Bates T. (Foot Injury) Braun C. (Ankle Injury) Gordon A. (Hamstring Injury) Johnson C. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Miami won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 2028:2220. (average 101.4:111).

Including home matches between the teams, Miami won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 788:868. (average 98.5:108.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Miami Heat - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.72%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Denver Nuggets - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 61.28%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miami Heat
NBA
27.12.25	Miami Heat - Indiana Pacers	142:116 ✺
26.12.25	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	111:126 ✺
23.12.25	Miami Heat - Toronto Raptors	91:112 ✺
21.12.25	New York Knicks - Miami Heat	132:125 ✺
19.12.25	Boston Celtics - Miami Heat	129:116 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLLL
- Denver Nuggets
NBA
27.12.25	Orlando Magic - Denver Nuggets	127:126 ✺
25.12.25	Denver Nuggets - Minnesota Timberwolves	142:138 OT ✺
23.12.25	Dallas Mavericks - Denver Nuggets	131:130 ✺
22.12.25	Denver Nuggets - Utah Jazz	135:112 ✺
20.12.25	Denver Nuggets - Houston Rockets	101:115 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

NBA
05.11.25	Denver Nuggets - Miami Heat	122:112
17.01.25	Miami Heat - Denver Nuggets	113:133
08.11.24	Denver Nuggets - Miami Heat	135:122
13.03.24	Miami Heat - Denver Nuggets	88:100
29.02.24	Denver Nuggets - Miami Heat	103:97
NBA Las Vegas Summer League
14.07.23	Denver Nuggets - Miami Heat	112:81
NBA
12.06.23	Denver Nuggets - Miami Heat	94:89

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