Match Info

NCAA

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	North Carolina Tar Heels		Louisville Cardinals

	1	2
	2.5	1.5
	2.18	1.7
	2.4	1.52
	2.28	1.57	Watch
	2.5	1.5
	2.36	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.85)	1.56 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 161.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

North Carolina Tar Heels
39.6%

Louisville Cardinals
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

50.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Carolina Tar Heels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Carolina Tar Heels's form might have worsened.

Louisville Cardinals has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Louisville Cardinals's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina Tar Heels than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for North Carolina Tar Heels, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville Cardinals than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Louisville Cardinals, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

North Carolina Tar Heels - Louisville Cardinals Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. North Carolina will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Louisville will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Louisville: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. North Carolina (votes: 1 - 50%). Louisville (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:82

#ad

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 4.

North Carolina has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Louisville is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Louisville will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1309:1209. (average 77:71.1).

Including home matches between the teams, North Carolina won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 546:474. (average 78:67.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Carolina Tar Heels basketball
NCAA College Basketball
21.02.26	Syracuse Orange - North Carolina Tar Heels	64:77 ✺
17.02.26	North Carolina State Wolfpack - North Carolina Tar Heels	82:58 ✺
14.02.26	North Carolina Tar Heels - Pittsburgh Panthers	79:65 ✺
10.02.26	Miami FL Hurricanes - North Carolina Tar Heels	75:66 ✺
07.02.26	North Carolina Tar Heels - Duke Blue Devils	71:68 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLWLW
- Louisville Cardinals basketball
NCAA College Basketball
21.02.26	Louisville Cardinals - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	87:70 ✺
17.02.26	Southern Methodist Mustangs - Louisville Cardinals	95:85 ✺
14.02.26	Baylor Bears - Louisville Cardinals	71:82 ✺
09.02.26	Louisville Cardinals - North Carolina State Wolfpack	118:77 ✺
07.02.26	Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Louisville Cardinals	80:88 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
01.01.25	Louisville Cardinals - North Carolina Tar Heels	83:70
17.01.24	North Carolina Tar Heels - Louisville Cardinals	86:70
14.01.23	Louisville Cardinals - North Carolina Tar Heels	59:80
21.02.22	North Carolina Tar Heels - Louisville Cardinals	70:63
01.02.22	Louisville Cardinals - North Carolina Tar Heels	83:90 OT (74:74)
20.02.21	North Carolina Tar Heels - Louisville Cardinals	99:54
22.02.20	Louisville Cardinals - North Carolina Tar Heels	72:55

North Carolina Tar Heels - Louisville Cardinals: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide