Match Info

NBL

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Edgar Centre (Dunedin)


	Otago Nuggets		Hawkes Bay Hawks

	1	2
			Watch
	1.15	4.75
	1.14	4.90	Watch
	1.12	4.94
	1.11	5.53	Watch
	1.10	4.85
	1.17	4.44
	1.09	6.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↓ (1.17)	5.09 ↑ (3.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Otago Nuggets
81.9%

Hawkes Bay Hawks
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

77.1%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Otago Nuggets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Hawkes Bay Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Otago Nuggets - Hawkes Bay Hawks Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 97:86

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Louis A.	28. Burton A. (C)
6. Moller C.	11. Grida D.
12. Rusbatch E. (C)	88. Jeter C.
1. Thata-Paese T.	23. McLaughlin J.
5. Tuach B.	7. Murphy J.
Substitutes
7. Bardsley M.	12. Allan I.
4. Chisholm O.	2. Casson B.
43. Hunt T.	1. Costley K.
18. McKenzie Z.	24. Eagle E.
8. Miller-Jose I.	3. Kara K.
10. Smiler C.	10. Taylor M.
42. Tipene P.
Coaches
. Sparrow J.	. Lopez W.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Otago Nuggets won 2.

In recent matches, Otago Nuggets has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hawkes Bay Hawks has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Hawkes Bay Hawks may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Otago Nuggets has had a series of away games.

In this match, Otago Nuggets is seen as the favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Otago Nuggets won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1104:1092. (average 92:91).

Including home matches between the teams, Otago Nuggets won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 573:527. (average 95.5:87.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Otago Nuggets
New Zealand NBL
12.07.26	Auckland Tuatara - Otago Nuggets	80:84 ✺
10.07.26	Franklin Bulls - Otago Nuggets	88:92 ✺
04.07.26	Otago Nuggets - Wellington Saints	90:91 ✺
27.06.26	Taranaki Airs - Otago Nuggets	77:90 ✺
25.06.26	Manawatu Jets - Otago Nuggets	104:97 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWLWL
- Hawkes Bay Hawks
New Zealand NBL
11.07.26	Manawatu Jets - Hawkes Bay Hawks	97:88 ✺
02.07.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Taranaki Airs	74:96 ✺
27.06.26	Canterbury Rams - Hawkes Bay Hawks	93:77 ✺
22.06.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Southland Sharks	93:117 ✺
20.06.26	Auckland Tuatara - Hawkes Bay Hawks	85:74 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NBL
09.05.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets	91:82
24.05.25	Otago Nuggets - Hawkes Bay Hawks	92:98
21.03.25	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets	86:93
08.06.24	Otago Nuggets - Hawkes Bay Hawks	108:86
11.05.24	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets	116:105
24.06.23	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets	87:94
26.05.23	Otago Nuggets - Hawkes Bay Hawks	94:95

Otago Nuggets - Hawkes Bay Hawks: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide