Match Info

Euroleague - Play Offs - Final

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Movistar Arena (Madrid)

Referee: Kowalski M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1, Oneplay Sport 3, Oneplay Sport 4
Europe	Go3 Baltic Euroleague
France	L'Equipe, SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Israel	Sport 5
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Turkey	S Sport+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Real Madrid		Hapoel Tel Aviv

	1	2
	1.29	3.3	Watch
	1.32	3.4	Watch
	1.35	3.37
	1.37	3.33	Watch
	1.33	3.3
	1.37	3.26	Watch
	1.3	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 (1.33)	3.33 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 171.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
71.4%

Hapoel Tel Aviv
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.6%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.8%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Hapoel Tel Aviv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hapoel Tel Aviv than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hapoel Tel Aviv could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	0%	31.2%

Real Madrid - Hapoel Tel Aviv Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Real Madrid will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Hapoel Tel Aviv will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Madrid: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 167.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -6.5, OT - Real Madrid (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 90:83

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
6. Abalde A.	2. Blakeney A.
7. Campazzo F.	3. Bryant E.
11. Hezonja M.	22. Micic V.
25. Len A.	25. Oturu D.
8. Okeke C.	24. Wainright I.
Substitutes
14. Deck G.	15. Edwards K.
24. Feliz A.	1. Jones C.
16. Garuba U.	26. Madar Y.
23. Llull S.	17. Malcolm C.
0. Lyles T.	0. Motley J.
12. Maledon T.	21. Odiase T.
9. Procida G.	20. Randolph L.
Coaches
. Scariolo S.	. Itoudis D.

Preview

Real Madrid leads series 1-0. Second leg.

Real Madrid is Qualified for Euroleague (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Hapoel Tel Aviv is Qualified for Euroleague (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Real Madrid is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Hapoel Tel Aviv has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hapoel Tel Aviv may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Hapoel Tel Aviv has had a series of away games.

In this match, Real Madrid is a strong favorite.

We predict that Real Madrid will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 253:239. (average 84.3:79.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 178:165. (average 89:82.5).

Outrights of Euroleague for now

Real Madrid: 8.19% Hapoel Tel Aviv: 5.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	L
10	Hapoel Tel Aviv	4	2	2	349:357
15	Real Madrid	4	1	3	345:350

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.33 are the expected chance of winning is 70.64%, but this team recently wins 85% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid basketball
Euroleague
29.04.26	Real Madrid - Hapoel Tel Aviv	86:82 ✺
Spanish ACB League
25.04.26	Valencia - Real Madrid	82:96 ✺
19.04.26	Real Madrid - Canarias	90:95 ✺
Euroleague
16.04.26	Real Madrid - Crvena Zvezda	103:82 ✺
Spanish ACB League
12.04.26	San Pablo Burgos - Real Madrid	78:94 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLWW
- Hapoel Tel Aviv BC
Euroleague
29.04.26	Real Madrid - Hapoel Tel Aviv	86:82 ✺
Israeli Basketball Super League
24.04.26	Ironi Kiryat Ata - Hapoel Tel Aviv	81:95 ✺
23.04.26	Hapoel Galil Elyon - Hapoel Tel Aviv	90:89 ✺
Euroleague
17.04.26	AS Monaco Basket - Hapoel Tel Aviv	105:85 ✺
12.04.26	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Hapoel Tel Aviv	88:99 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
29.04.26	Real Madrid - Hapoel Tel Aviv	86:82
24.03.26	Real Madrid - Hapoel Tel Aviv	92:83
25.11.25	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Real Madrid	74:75

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