Match Info

Euroleague - Round 12

Date: 20 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Movistar Arena (Madrid)

Referee: Kowalski M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1, Oneplay Sport 3, Oneplay Sport 4
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Spain	Movistar Plus+
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
World	EuroLeague TV


	Real Madrid		Žalgiris Kaunas

	1	2
	1.28	3.8	Watch
	1.3	3.7
	1.35	2.88
	1.37	3.07	Watch
	1.29	3.83	Watch
	1.33	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.33)	3.41 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 163.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
72.1%

Žalgiris Kaunas
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.9%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Žalgiris Kaunas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris Kaunas than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Žalgiris Kaunas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Real Madrid - Žalgiris Kaunas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 7 - 70%). Žalgiris (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 170.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 83, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:78

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
6. Abalde A.	92. Ulanovas E.
0. Lyles T.	10. Tubelis A.
22. Tavares E.	15. Birutis L.
14. Deck G.	91. Sirvydis D.
7. Campazzo F.	3. Francisco S.
Substitutes
24. Feliz A.	8. Brazdeikis I.
16. Garuba U.	51. Butkevicius A.
11. Hezonja M.	12. Lo M.
1. Kramer D.	4. Mikalauskas K.
23. Llull S.	17. Rubstavicius M.
12. Maledon T.	14. Sleva D.
8. Okeke C.	7. Wright M.
Coaches
. Scariolo S.	. Masiulis T.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Žalgiris may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Madrid is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1657:1538. (average 82.9:76.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 884:808. (average 88.4:80.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.33 are the expected chance of winning is 70.31%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid basketball
Spanish ACB League
16.11.25	Real Madrid - Bilbao Basket	82:70 ✺
Euroleague
13.11.25	Real Madrid - Panathinaikos	77:87 ✺
11.11.25	Valencia - Real Madrid	89:76 ✺
Spanish ACB League
09.11.25	Joventut Badalona - Real Madrid	75:80 ✺
Euroleague
07.11.25	Barcelona - Real Madrid	92:101 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLWW
- Žalgiris Kaunas
Euroleague
14.11.25	Dubai - Žalgiris Kaunas	95:89 ✺
12.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Žalgiris Kaunas	95:78 ✺
Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
09.11.25	Nevėžis Kedainiai - Žalgiris Kaunas	68:94 ✺
Euroleague
07.11.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Valencia	86:77 ✺
Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
02.11.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Rytas	79:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
10.01.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Real Madrid	64:83
12.12.24	Real Madrid - Žalgiris Kaunas	83:92
11.04.24	Žalgiris Kaunas - Real Madrid	62:64
17.10.23	Real Madrid - Žalgiris Kaunas	93:79
23.02.23	Real Madrid - Žalgiris Kaunas	96:69
15.12.22	Žalgiris Kaunas - Real Madrid	81:72
Club Friendly Basketball
13.09.22	Real Madrid - Žalgiris Kaunas	89:81

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