Match Info

Premier League - Night 12 - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday

Location: M&S Bank Arena (Liverpool)


	Josh Rock		Michael Van Gerwen

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.9	1.9
	1.83	1.83
	1.8	2
	1.87	1.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.08)	1.9 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Josh Rock
50.5%

Michael Van Gerwen
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

61.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Josh Rock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Josh Rock's performance.

Michael Van Gerwen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Michael Van Gerwen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Josh Rock than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Josh Rock that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Michael Van Gerwen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Josh Rock - Michael Van Gerwen Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Rock will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:6

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Preview

Rock is ranked World Ranking: 8. Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 4.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rock won 2.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Van Gerwen will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Rock won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 52:62. (average 5.2:6.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Michael Van Gerwen - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 54.79%, but this team recently wins 83% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Josh Rock
Darts
19.04.26	Josh Rock - Ross Smith	5:6 ✺
18.04.26	Josh Rock - Keane Barry	6:3 ✺
16.04.26	Jonny Clayton - Josh Rock	6:4 ✺
16.04.26	Stephen Bunting - Josh Rock	1:6 ✺
09.04.26	Jonny Clayton - Josh Rock	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLWW
- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
19.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Wessel Nijman	2:6 ✺
19.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Jermaine Wattimena	6:2 ✺
18.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Michael Unterbuchner	6:2 ✺
16.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Jonny Clayton	2:6 ✺
09.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Gian Van Veen	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
12.02.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Josh Rock	6:2
14.09.25	Josh Rock - Michael Van Gerwen	6:11
07.09.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Josh Rock	4:6
23.07.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Josh Rock	10:11
22.09.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Josh Rock	6:4
03.10.23	Michael Van Gerwen - Josh Rock	2:0 best of 5 sets
14.05.23	Michael Van Gerwen - Josh Rock	6:5

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