Match Info

Premier League - Night 11 - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Ahoy Rotterdam (Rotterdam)


	Michael Van Gerwen		Jonny Clayton

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.77	2.02
	1.74	1.93
	1.73	2.1
	1.7	2.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.82)	2.04 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Van Gerwen
54.1%

Jonny Clayton
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

48.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Van Gerwen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Jonny Clayton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Michael Van Gerwen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jonny Clayton than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jonny Clayton could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Michael Van Gerwen - Jonny Clayton Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Van Gerwen (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:5

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Preview

Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 4. Clayton is ranked World Ranking: 5.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 3.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Clayton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 114:112. (average 5.7:5.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
09.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Gian Van Veen	6:4 ✺
05.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Niko Springer	1:6 ✺
02.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Stephen Bunting	3:6 ✺
26.03.26	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	3:6 ✺
22.03.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Ryan Joyce	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLWW
- Jonny Clayton
Darts
14.04.26	Jonny Clayton - Ricky Evans	6:4 ✺
13.04.26	Jonny Clayton - Scott Waites	6:0 ✺
09.04.26	Jonny Clayton - Josh Rock	3:6 ✺
09.04.26	Luke Humphries - Jonny Clayton	5:6 ✺
06.04.26	Danny Noppert - Jonny Clayton	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
12.03.26	Jonny Clayton - Michael Van Gerwen	6:3
13.09.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Jonny Clayton	6:4
21.04.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Jonny Clayton	6:4
24.09.23	Jonny Clayton - Michael Van Gerwen	5:6
06.04.23	Michael Van Gerwen - Jonny Clayton	3:6
30.03.23	Jonny Clayton - Michael Van Gerwen	6:5
09.03.23	Michael Van Gerwen - Jonny Clayton	6:2

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