Match Info

Premier League - Night 16 - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Utilita Arena Sheffield (Sheffield)


	Luke Humphries		Michael Van Gerwen

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.5	2.55
	1.51	2.45
	1.53	2.5
	1.51	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.55)	2.53 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luke Humphries
62.8%

Michael Van Gerwen
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

52.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luke Humphries has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Michael Van Gerwen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luke Humphries than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luke Humphries that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (+15.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Michael Van Gerwen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Legs - Humphries (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Humphries (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:3

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Preview

Humphries is ranked World Ranking: 2. Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 4.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Humphries won 3.

Humphries is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Van Gerwen is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Van Gerwen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Humphries is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Humphries won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 140:131. (average 7:6.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Luke Humphries - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 60.61%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luke Humphries
Darts
18.05.26	Luke Humphries - Jermaine Wattimena	8:4 ✺
14.05.26	Luke Humphries - Stephen Bunting	6:0 ✺
07.05.26	Luke Littler - Luke Humphries	6:5 ✺
07.05.26	Josh Rock - Luke Humphries	5:6 ✺
30.04.26	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLWW
- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
14.05.26	Gerwyn Price - Michael Van Gerwen	6:4 ✺
10.05.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Robert Cross	4:6 ✺
09.05.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Krzysztof Ratajski	6:3 ✺
07.05.26	Luke Littler - Michael Van Gerwen	6:5 ✺
30.04.26	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
30.04.26	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	6:3
26.03.26	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	3:6
05.03.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Humphries	1:6
14.09.25	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	5:10
08.05.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Humphries	4:6
24.04.25	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	6:4
20.03.25	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	4:6

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