Match Info

WORLD: PREMIER LEAGUE - NIGHT 9 - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 28 March 2024, Thursday

Location: SSE Arena (Belfast)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Urheilu
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sport 1
Hungary	Sport 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Xtra


	Michael Smith		Michael Van Gerwen

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.3	1.6
	2.37	1.53
	2.29	1.62
	2.35	1.61
	2.3	1.62
	2.42	1.57
	2.27	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.26)	1.6 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Smith
40.7%

Michael Van Gerwen
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

58.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

63.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Michael Van Gerwen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Smith than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Michael Smith - Michael Van Gerwen Predictions

Users Predictions: Michael Van Gerwen will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:6

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Smith won 1.

Recent matches Smith is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Van Gerwen is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Van Gerwen could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Van Gerwen will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Smith won 11 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 121-126.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Smith
Darts
21.03.24	Gerwyn Price - Michael Smith	5:6
21.03.24	Luke Littler - Michael Smith	4:6 ✺
19.03.24	Michael Smith - Nathan Rafferty	6:5 ✺
14.03.24	Luke Humphries - Michael Smith	6:4 ✺
09.03.24	Michael Smith - Mike De Decker	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWLL
- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
21.03.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Gerwyn Price	5:6 ✺
18.03.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Danny Van Trijp	6:4 ✺
14.03.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Littler	2:6 ✺
09.03.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Peter Wright	4:6 ✺
07.03.24	Robert Cross - Michael Van Gerwen	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
08.02.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Michael Smith	6:5
01.02.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Michael Smith	5:6
19.01.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Michael Smith	7:6
08.07.23	Michael Smith - Michael Van Gerwen	3:7
25.05.23	Michael Smith - Michael Van Gerwen	8:10
11.05.23	Michael Van Gerwen - Michael Smith	4:6
02.02.23	Michael Smith - Michael Van Gerwen	3:6

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