Match Info

European Tour 12 - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: PVA Expo (Prague)


	Nathan Aspinall		Andrew Gilding

	1	2
	1.36	3.20	Watch
	1.40	2.88
	1.36	2.99	Watch
	1.36	2.95
	1.34	2.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.38)	3 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nathan Aspinall
68.7%

Andrew Gilding
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nathan Aspinall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Andrew Gilding has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nathan Aspinall that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrew Gilding than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Andrew Gilding could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Nathan Aspinall - Andrew Gilding Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:3

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Preview

Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 16. Gilding is ranked World Ranking: 27.

Aspinall is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Gilding has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gilding may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Aspinall is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aspinall won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:14. (average 4.6:2.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Andrew Gilding - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 32.17%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
30.08.26	Gary Anderson - Nathan Aspinall	7:6 ✺
30.08.26	Nathan Aspinall - Chris Dobey	6:5 ✺
30.08.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	4:6 ✺
29.08.26	Nathan Aspinall - Ryan Joyce	6:4 ✺
25.08.26	Nathan Aspinall - Thibault Tricole	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWWW
- Andrew Gilding
Darts
04.09.26	Andrew Gilding - David Rosi	6:3 ✺
29.08.26	Jermaine Wattimena - Andrew Gilding	6:4 ✺
28.08.26	Andrew Gilding - Milan Biro	6:0 ✺
19.07.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Andrew Gilding	10:6 ✺
10.07.26	Andrew Gilding - Robert Owen	5:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
06.04.26	Nathan Aspinall - Andrew Gilding	6:4
31.01.25	Nathan Aspinall - Andrew Gilding	3:0
28.12.24	Nathan Aspinall - Andrew Gilding	4:0
10.04.23	Nathan Aspinall - Andrew Gilding	6:4
29.06.19	Nathan Aspinall - Andrew Gilding	4:6 best of 11 legs

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