Match Info

World Matchplay - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Winter Gardens (Blackpool)


	Michael Van Gerwen		Andrew Gilding

	1	2
	1.40	3.00	Watch
	1.34	3.25
	1.73	1.92	Watch
	1.36	2.97
	1.37	2.90
	1.36	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.31)	2.82 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 16.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Van Gerwen
66.4%

Andrew Gilding
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.9%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Van Gerwen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Michael Van Gerwen's form might have worsened.

Andrew Gilding has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Andrew Gilding's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrew Gilding than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Michael Van Gerwen - Andrew Gilding Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Van Gerwen will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Van Gerwen (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 10:7

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Preview

Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 4. Gilding is ranked World Ranking: 25.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Van Gerwen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Van Gerwen is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 36:29. (average 9:7.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Michael Van Gerwen - the odds 1.31 are the expected chance of winning is 71.89%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
12.07.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta	4:6 ✺
11.07.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Joe Cullen	6:2 ✺
07.07.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Tom Bissell	6:5 ✺
21.06.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Andrew Gilding	4:6 ✺
20.06.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Krzysztof Ratajski	6:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWLW
- Andrew Gilding
Darts
10.07.26	Andrew Gilding - Robert Owen	5:6 ✺
07.07.26	Andrew Gilding - Ricardo Pietreczko	6:4 ✺
21.06.26	Andrew Gilding - Ross Smith	4:6 ✺
21.06.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Andrew Gilding	4:6 ✺
20.06.26	Luke Woodhouse - Andrew Gilding	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
21.06.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Andrew Gilding	4:6
19.07.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Andrew Gilding	16:10
12.05.24	Michael Van Gerwen - Andrew Gilding	6:5
08.03.15	Michael Van Gerwen - Andrew Gilding	10:8

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