Match Info

Liga Nacional - Round 9

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday


	Castell de Peñiscola		ElPozo Murcia

	1	X	2
	3.4	5.4	1.65
	3.34	5.39	1.63	Watch
	4.1	4.2	1.62	Watch
	3.5	5	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (3.53)	5 (5)	1.63 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castell de Peñiscola
25.5%

Draw
18.3%

ElPozo Murcia
56.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.9%

18.3%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

18.7%

54.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castell de Peñiscola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ElPozo Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castell de Peñiscola than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ElPozo Murcia than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:4

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Gus (G)	19. Edu (G)
18. Elias	31. Gadeia
14. Perez V.	33. Ligeiro
5. Plaza A.	11. Marcel
20. Sancho D.	9. Rafa Santos
Substitutes
16. Araya B.
7. Ferreira M.
6. Flores L.
12. Gonzalez G. (G)
10. Juanico
9. Juanqui
19. Munoz P.
4. Pardo C.
49. Rocha L.
21. Rosental N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', Marcel (G),
17', Gadeia (G),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
29', Araya B. (G),
36', Bebe (G),
39', Rafa Santos (G),
40', Juanico (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñiscola won 3.

Peñiscola has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

ElPozo Murcia is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, ElPozo Murcia is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñiscola won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 56:88. (average 2.8:4.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñiscola won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 32:41. (average 3.2:4.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castell de Peñiscola
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
01.11.25	Noia - Castell de Peñiscola	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Castell de Peñiscola - Manzanares	5:6 ✺
12.10.25	Alzira - Castell de Peñiscola	4:6 ✺
03.10.25	Palma Futsal - Castell de Peñiscola	4:3 ✺
27.09.25	Castell de Peñiscola - Jaén Paraíso Interior	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWLW
- ElPozo Murcia
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
02.11.25	O Parrulo - ElPozo Murcia	3:4 ✺
25.10.25	ElPozo Murcia - Xota	3:0 ✺
11.10.25	Manzanares - ElPozo Murcia	2:3 ✺
04.10.25	ElPozo Murcia - Inter	5:3 ✺
27.09.25	Santa Coloma - ElPozo Murcia	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera Division Futsal
04.06.25	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	2:3
01.06.25	ElPozo Murcia - Castell de Peñiscola	6:3
29.05.25	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	8:7 penalties
19.04.25	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	5:4
21.12.24	ElPozo Murcia - Castell de Peñiscola	3:4
30.03.24	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	5:1
11.11.23	ElPozo Murcia - Castell de Peñiscola	4:4

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