Match Info

Liga Nacional - Round 12

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday


	Castell de Peñiscola		Santa Coloma

	1	X	2
	1.85	4.9	2.9
	1.82	5.30	2.79	Watch
	1.85	4.6	2.92	Watch
	1.66	5.66	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.84)	5.12 ↑ (5)	2.9 ↑ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castell de Peñiscola
50.8%

Draw
17.8%

Santa Coloma
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

18.1%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

20.2%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castell de Peñiscola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Santa Coloma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castell de Peñiscola than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castell de Peñiscola that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Coloma than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Coloma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Castell de Peñiscola - Santa Coloma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:4

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Gus (G)	22. Joao Frezzato (G)
18. Elias (C)	17. Corso S. (C)
7. Ferreira M.	20. Dalmau N.
6. Flores L.	25. Ferreyra Marcos
5. Plaza A.	11. Leandrinho
Substitutes
16. Araya B.	24. Aldoma A.
28. Cervera A.	33. Harada K.
12. Gonzalez G. (G)	30. Leguizamon M.
10. Juanico	28. Medina R.
9. Juanqui	18. Niello B.
19. Munoz P.	12. Puigvert
4. Pardo C.	10. Ramos V.
14. Perez V.	4. Santos U.
49. Rocha L.	3. Tolra M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 3)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñiscola won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Peñiscola could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñiscola won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 77:62. (average 3.9:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñiscola won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 45:32. (average 4.5:3.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castell de Peñiscola
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
22.11.25	Castell de Peñiscola - Barcelona Alusport	1:5 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey Futsal
18.11.25	Avanza Jaén - Castell de Peñiscola	1:4 ✺
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
15.11.25	Valdepeñas - Castell de Peñiscola	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	2:4 ✺
01.11.25	Noia - Castell de Peñiscola	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLW
- Industrias Santa Coloma
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
22.11.25	Santa Coloma - Noia	3:5 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey Futsal
18.11.25	Leganés - Santa Coloma	5:7 OT ✺
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
15.11.25	Xota - Santa Coloma	3:4 ✺
07.11.25	Santa Coloma - O Parrulo	2:3 ✺
01.11.25	Jaén Paraíso Interior - Santa Coloma	7:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera Division Futsal
15.03.25	Castell de Peñiscola - Santa Coloma	4:2
30.11.24	Santa Coloma - Castell de Peñiscola	4:5
14.02.24	Santa Coloma - Castell de Peñiscola	4:2
23.09.23	Castell de Peñiscola - Santa Coloma	7:5
17.04.21	Castell de Peñiscola - Santa Coloma	2:2
17.11.20	Santa Coloma - Castell de Peñiscola	2:2
29.02.20	Santa Coloma - Castell de Peñiscola	1:1

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