Match Info

Liga Nacional - Round 30

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday


	ElPozo Murcia		Castell de Peñiscola

	1	X	2
	1.35	5.6	5.8
	1.42	5.18	5.29	Watch
	1.36	5.5	5.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.42)	5.43 ↑ (5.18)	5.52 ↑ (5.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ElPozo Murcia
66.5%

Draw
16.9%

Castell de Peñiscola
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

17.8%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.7%

20.2%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ElPozo Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Castell de Peñiscola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ElPozo Murcia than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for ElPozo Murcia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castell de Peñiscola than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ElPozo Murcia - Castell de Peñiscola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Henrique (G)	12. Gonzalez G. (G)
11. Marcel (C)	16. Araya B.
9. Rafa Santos	18. Elias (C)
10. Ricardinho	23. Quintela D.
31. Spinello F.	11. Saladie C.
Substitutes
69. Abdelhakim M.	1. Acosta L.
16. Alvarez D.	7. Ferreira M.
51. Bebe	6. Flores L.
77. Dener	9. Juanqui
19. Edu (G)	19. Munoz P.
90. Jesus Villegas G.	14. Perez V.
33. Ligeiro	5. Plaza A.
8. Ricardo	20. Sancho D.
17. Rivera A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Gonzalez G. 🟨,
9', Flores L. 🟨,
14', Juanqui (G),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
23', Rafa Santos (G),
26', Juanqui (G),
32', Araya B. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ElPozo Murcia won 3.

Recent performances by ElPozo Murcia have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Peñiscola is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, ElPozo Murcia is the clear favorite.

We predict that ElPozo Murcia will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, ElPozo Murcia won 14 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 87:56. (average 4.4:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, ElPozo Murcia won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 42:22. (average 4.7:2.4).

Standings

Apertura

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
5	ElPozo Murcia	6	3	1	2	24:22	10
13	Peniscola	5	1	1	3	15:20	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ElPozo Murcia
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
08.05.26	Barcelona Alusport - ElPozo Murcia	4:3 ✺
02.05.26	ElPozo Murcia - Alzira	6:3 ✺
29.04.26	Jaén Paraíso Interior - ElPozo Murcia	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	ElPozo Murcia - Valdepeñas	3:3 ✺
19.04.26	Ribera Navarra - ElPozo Murcia	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWWTT
- Castell de Peñiscola
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
09.05.26	Castell de Peñiscola - Ribera Navarra	6:2 ✺
02.05.26	Barcelona Alusport - Castell de Peñiscola	5:5 ✺
29.04.26	Castell de Peñiscola - Inter	4:3 ✺
25.04.26	Castell de Peñiscola - Cartagena	4:2 ✺
19.04.26	O Parrulo - Castell de Peñiscola	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 38.9 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera Division Futsal
08.11.25	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	2:4
04.06.25	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	2:3
01.06.25	ElPozo Murcia - Castell de Peñiscola	6:3
29.05.25	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	8:7 penalties
19.04.25	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	5:4
21.12.24	ElPozo Murcia - Castell de Peñiscola	3:4
30.03.24	Castell de Peñiscola - ElPozo Murcia	5:1

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