Match Info

European League - Group Stage

Date: 14 October 2025, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay


	MT Melsungen		Benfica

	1	X	2
	1.27	10	4.5	Watch
	1.28	11	4.4
	1.15	9.82	8.84	Watch
	1.3	10	4.47
	1.37	9.5	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.56)	10.06 ↑ (8.83)	5.16 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 62.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

MT Melsungen
72.8%

Draw
9.2%

Benfica
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

10.3%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

10.7%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MT Melsungen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in MT Melsungen's performance.

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Benfica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for MT Melsungen than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with MT Melsungen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benfica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

MT Melsungen - Benfica Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:30

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Preview

Melsungen is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Benfica is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Melsungen is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Melsungen won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 113:102. (average 28.3:25.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Melsungen won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 63:47. (average 31.5:23.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MT Melsungen
German Bundesliga Handball
10.10.25	MT Melsungen - SC DHfK Leipzig	34:25 ✺
05.10.25	Stuttgart - MT Melsungen	29:31 ✺
26.09.25	MT Melsungen - HSV Hamburg	32:28 ✺
21.09.25	Füchse Berlin - MT Melsungen	30:24 ✺
12.09.25	MT Melsungen - Erlangen	32:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWLT
- Benfica Handball
Portuguese Andebol 1
11.10.25	Benfica - Águas Santas	26:22 ✺
04.10.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	31:32 ✺
01.10.25	Benfica - Avanca	48:31 ✺
27.09.25	Póvoa - Benfica	33:38 ✺
20.09.25	Benfica - Colegio de Gaia	45:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Hanbdall
17.08.24	MT Melsungen - Benfica	31:25
EHF European League
15.02.20	Benfica - MT Melsungen	29:26
25.03.17	Benfica - MT Melsungen	26:24
11.02.17	MT Melsungen - Benfica	32:22

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