Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay


	MT Melsungen		HSV Hamburg

	1	X	2
	1.7	8	2.9
	1.66	8.2	2.65
	1.28	8.78	5.18	Watch
	1.7	9.5	2.62	Watch
	1.69	9.5	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.54)	8.8 ↑ (8)	3.22 ↓ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.25

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

MT Melsungen
59.5%

Draw
10.9%

HSV Hamburg
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

11.6%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

10%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MT Melsungen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

HSV Hamburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for MT Melsungen than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with MT Melsungen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HSV Hamburg than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

MT Melsungen - HSV Hamburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Melsungen will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:29

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Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melsungen won 2.

Melsungen is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hamburg has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Melsungen could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Melsungen won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 429:461. (average 26.8:28.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Melsungen won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 234:225. (average 26:25).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MT Melsungen
German Bundesliga Handball
21.09.25	Füchse Berlin - MT Melsungen	30:24 ✺
12.09.25	MT Melsungen - Erlangen	32:32 ✺
07.09.25	Eisenach - MT Melsungen	27:29 ✺
04.09.25	Gummersbach - MT Melsungen	29:28 ✺
29.08.25	MT Melsungen - Rhein-Neckar Löwen	27:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTWLL
- HSV Hamburg
German Bundesliga Handball
19.09.25	HSV Hamburg - TBV Lemgo	35:35 ✺
13.09.25	THW Kiel - HSV Hamburg	27:25 ✺
07.09.25	HSV Hamburg - Rhein-Neckar Löwen	33:30 ✺
03.09.25	HSV Hamburg - Hannover-Burgdorf	29:33 ✺
31.08.25	Stuttgart - HSV Hamburg	33:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga Handball
20.03.25	HSV Hamburg - MT Melsungen	42:32
11.12.24	MT Melsungen - HSV Hamburg	35:28
01.04.24	HSV Hamburg - MT Melsungen	29:22
07.09.23	MT Melsungen - HSV Hamburg	33:26
11.06.23	HSV Hamburg - MT Melsungen	33:28
08.09.22	MT Melsungen - HSV Hamburg	30:27
03.03.22	MT Melsungen - HSV Hamburg	26:22

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