Match Info

European League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Barclays Arena (Hamburg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 2
Denmark	TV3 MAX
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	DAZN 2
Hungary	Sport 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
Norway	Viaplay
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium


	Montpellier HB		THW Kiel

	1	X	2
	3.2	8.5	1.47	Watch
	3.5	10	1.44
	3.2	9.6	1.47
	3.46	7.78	1.42	Watch
	3.25	8.5	1.44
	3.31	9.5	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↓ (3.56)	8.98 ↓ (10.35)	1.45 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.75

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier HB
27.4%

Draw
10.1%

THW Kiel
62.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

8.6%

66.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

7.7%

59.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier HB has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

THW Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier HB than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for THW Kiel than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Montpellier HB - THW Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Kiel will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:32

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Lineups


34. Balaguer D.	48. Abdelhak M.
12. Bolzinger C.	22. Ankermann R.
27. Caille M.	53. Bilyk N.
18. Casado A.	23. Dahmke R.
92. Desbonnet R.	4. Duvnjak D.
25. Guigon L.	91. Imre B.
19. Lenne A.	21. Johansson E.
26. Monte B.	7. Landin M.
13. Moraes R.	20. Laube L.
90. Plantin L.	93. Nacinovic V.
28. Porte V.	11. Overby P.
93. Prat K.	61. Pekeler H.
22. Richert B.	1. Perez de Vargas G.
4. Simonet D.	6. Reinkind H.
11. Srna Z.	33. Wolff A.
5. Villeminot K.	24. Zerbe L.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Kiel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Kiel is considered a favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 263:280. (average 29.2:31.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 134:123. (average 33.5:30.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HB
French Starligue Handball
26.05.26	Saint-Raphael - Montpellier HB	38:35 ✺
Coupe de France Handball
23.05.26	Montpellier HB - HBC Nantes	27:24 ✺
French Starligue Handball
08.05.26	Montpellier HB - Cesson Rennes Métropole	36:34 ✺
EHF European League
05.05.26	Vardar - Montpellier HB	27:24 ✺
French Starligue Handball
01.05.26	Dijon - Montpellier HB	28:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWLW
- THW Kiel
German Bundesliga Handball
24.05.26	Bergischer - THW Kiel	23:32 ✺
10.05.26	THW Kiel - Füchse Berlin	28:35 ✺
EHF European League
05.05.26	THW Kiel - Nexe	34:29 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
02.05.26	HSG Wetzlar - THW Kiel	33:25 ✺
EHF European League
28.04.26	Nexe - THW Kiel	33:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

EHF European League
02.12.25	THW Kiel - Montpellier HB	27:18
14.10.25	Montpellier HB - THW Kiel	28:30
24.05.25	THW Kiel - Montpellier HB	31:32
EHF Champions League
02.05.24	THW Kiel - Montpellier HB	31:21
24.04.24	Montpellier HB - THW Kiel	39:30
23.02.22	THW Kiel - Montpellier HB	35:26
30.09.21	Montpellier HB - THW Kiel	37:30

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