Match Info

Copa de la Reina Women - Semi-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Plaza de Toros de Illumbe (San Sebastian)


	Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE		Mecalia Atletico Guardes

	1	X	2
	1.82	7.4	2.4
	1.87	7.5	2.37
	1.85	7.5	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 (1.85)	7.47 ↓ (7.5)	2.37 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE
49.4%

Draw
12.2%

Mecalia Atletico Guardes
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

12.1%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

11.1%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Mecalia Atletico Guardes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mecalia Atletico Guardes than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gran Canaria won 1.

Recent performances by Gran Canaria have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guardes is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gran Canaria may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gran Canaria won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 511:523. (average 25.6:26.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Gran Canaria won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 266:267. (average 26.6:26.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE
Spanish División de Honor Handball Women
03.05.26	Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE - Elche	25:19 ✺
25.04.26	Elche - Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE	24:19 ✺
18.04.26	Lanzarote Zonzamas - Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE	26:25 ✺
04.04.26	Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE - Morvedre	23:19 ✺
31.03.26	Mecalia Atletico Guardes - Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE	25:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WLLWL
- Mecalia Atletico Guardes
Spanish Copa de la Reina Handball Women
08.05.26	Beti Onak - Mecalia Atletico Guardes	23:27 ✺
Spanish División de Honor Handball Women
02.05.26	Mecalia Atletico Guardes - Porriño	15:20 ✺
29.04.26	Porriño - Mecalia Atletico Guardes	25:25 ✺
EHF European Cup Women
25.04.26	Mecalia Atletico Guardes - Malaga Costa del Sol	26:23 ✺
19.04.26	Malaga Costa del Sol - Mecalia Atletico Guardes	24:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish División de Honor Handball Women
31.03.26	Mecalia Atletico Guardes - Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE	25:21
15.11.25	Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE - Mecalia Atletico Guardes	24:22
15.02.25	Mecalia Atletico Guardes - Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE	21:19
05.10.24	Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE - Mecalia Atletico Guardes	25:27
24.02.24	Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE - Mecalia Atletico Guardes	27:28
15.11.23	Mecalia Atletico Guardes - Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE	27:22
10.05.23	Rocasa Gran Canaria ACE - Mecalia Atletico Guardes	25:21

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