Match Info

National League - Round 45

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Gottardo Arena (Ambri)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Switzerland	MySports, MySports


	Ambrì-Piotta		Lugano

	1	X	2
	2.7	4.2	2.2	Watch
	2.75	4.15	2.16
	2.72	3.97	2.13
	2.76	4.21	2.15	Watch
	2.6	3.9	2.1
	2.82	4.2	2.2	Watch
	2.65	3.85	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (2.84)	4.07 ↓ (4.14)	2.16 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ambrì-Piotta
34.2%

Draw
22.8%

Lugano
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

22.6%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

23.9%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ambrì-Piotta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ambrì-Piotta than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-1%)

Ambrì Piotta - Lugano Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5, 1st Period - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5, OT - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Wuthrich P. (G)	34. Schlegel N. (G)
71. Virtanen J.	22. Alatalo S.
21. Bachmann L.	25. Muller M.
77. Joly M.	94. Simion D.
13. Landry M.	97. Thurkauf C. (C)
88. De Luca T.	96. Perlini B.
Line 2
72. Heed T.	26. Aebischer D.
86. Pezzullo R.	63. Dahlstrom C.
89. DiDomenico C.	17. Fazzini L.
11. Tierney C.	21. Sanford Z.
10. Formenton A.	10. Sekac J.
Line 3
59. Wuthrich D.	58. Carrick C.
27. Dotti Z.	52. Peltonen J.
17. Muller M.	16. Emanuelsson E.
44. Heim A.	7. Tanner R.
16. Zwerger D.	13. Bertaggia A.
Line 4
26. Terraneo S.	9. Zanetti B.
12. Grassi D. (C)	11. Zanetti M.
22. Kostner D.	23. Morini G.
18. Pestoni I.	12. Peltonen A.
Substitutes
37. Landry L.	27. Henry C.
90. Senn G. (G)	37. Van Pottelberghe J. (G)
Coaches
. Tapola J.	. Mitell T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
00:39, De Luca T. (2 min),
04:40, 1 - 0, Muller M. (G), DiDomenico C. (A),
06:00, 1 - 1, Emanuelsson E. (G), Muller M. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
03:45, 2 - 1, DiDomenico C. (G), Terraneo S. (A), Formenton A. (A2)
16:24, Carrick C. (2 min),
16:24, Zwerger D. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
18:00, 3 - 1, Formenton A. (G), DiDomenico C. (A),
19:24, 3 - 2, Simion D. (G), Thurkauf C. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 in the zone National League (Play Out: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ambrì-Piotta won 2.

Ambrì-Piotta is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lugano has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ambrì-Piotta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ambrì-Piotta won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 39:62. (average 2:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ambrì-Piotta won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:26. (average 2.3:2.9).

Outrights of Swiss National League Hockey for now

Lugano: 4.67% Ambri-Piotta: 0.89%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Ambri-Piotta	10	4	1	1	4	26:32	15
7	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	37:33	15

Last Results with these Odds

Ambrì-Piotta - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 32.91%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Ambri-Piotta
Swiss National League Hockey
27.01.26	Fribourg-Gottéron - Ambrì-Piotta	4:3 OT ✺
26.01.26	Genève-Servette - Ambrì-Piotta	3:4 OT ✺
23.01.26	Ambrì-Piotta - ZSC Lions	2:4 ✺
17.01.26	Ambrì-Piotta - EHC Kloten	2:5 ✺
15.01.26	Biel - Ambrì-Piotta	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLLL
- HC Lugano
Swiss National League Hockey
27.01.26	Lugano - Rapperswil-Jona Lakers	7:3 ✺
24.01.26	Lugano - Davos	1:4 ✺
23.01.26	Fribourg-Gottéron - Lugano	3:2 penalties ✺
18.01.26	Lugano - SCL Tigers	4:3 penalties ✺
16.01.26	Bern - Lugano	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss National League Hockey
28.11.25	Lugano - Ambrì-Piotta	5:1
28.10.25	Ambrì-Piotta - Lugano	2:5
30.09.25	Lugano - Ambrì-Piotta	1:2
28.01.25	Ambrì-Piotta - Lugano	2:1 penalties
23.12.24	Lugano - Ambrì-Piotta	4:1
22.11.24	Lugano - Ambrì-Piotta	3:1
11.10.24	Ambrì-Piotta - Lugano	2:1

Ambrì-Piotta - Lugano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide