Match Info

National League - Round 40

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: PostFinance Arena (Bern)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Switzerland	MySports, MySports


	Bern		Lugano

	1	X	2
	2.18	4.2	2.7	Watch
	2.26	4.1	2.6
	2.21	4.23	2.67	Watch
	2.15	3.9	2.5
	2.35	4.03	2.68	Watch
	2.25	3.75	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.44)	4.04 ↑ (3.98)	2.61 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bern
41.5%

Draw
23%

Lugano
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

23.5%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

25.2%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bern has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bern than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bern that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

Bern - Lugano Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lugano will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
36. Reideborn A. (G)	37. Van Pottelberghe J. (G)
58. Loeffel R.	22. Alatalo S.
37. Lindholm A.	25. Muller M.
19. Merela W.	94. Simion D.
15. Aaltonen M.	97. Thurkauf C. (C)
9. Ejdsell V.	16. Emanuelsson E.
Line 2
65. Untersander R. (C)	26. Aebischer D.
44. Kreis S.	63. Dahlstrom C.
23. Lehmann M.	17. Fazzini L.
83. Muller M.	21. Sanford Z.
8. Marchon M.	14. Canonica L.
Line 3
4. Aktell H.	58. Carrick C.
14. Fullemann L.	52. Peltonen J.
86. Vermin J.	96. Perlini B.
43. Graf A.	7. Tanner R.
10. Scherwey T.	10. Sekac J.
Line 4
41. Kindschi S.	9. Zanetti B.
88. Schild T.	11. Zanetti M.
91. Ritzmann F.	23. Morini G.
64. Alge M.	13. Bertaggia A.
Substitutes
17. Moser L.	12. Peltonen A.
33. Zurkirchen S. (G)	34. Schlegel N. (G)
Coaches
. Ehlers H.	. Mitell T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
13:03, 0 - 1, Fazzini L. (G), Canonica L. (A), Sanford Z. (A2)
15:41, 0 - 2, Carrick C. (G), Peltonen J. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
04:26, 0 - 3, Simion D. (G), Thurkauf C. (A), Alatalo S. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
05:26, 0 - 4, Sekac J. (G), Perlini B. (A), Muller M. (A2)
13:51, Tanner R. (2 min),
15:31, 1 - 4, Ejdsell V. (G), Lehmann M. (A), Loeffel R. (A2)

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bern won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Bern may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lugano has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bern won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 49:60. (average 2.5:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bern won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:29. (average 2.5:2.9).

Outrights of Swiss National League Hockey for now

Bern: 7.51% Lugano: 5.5%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
8	Bern	8	3	0	3	2	25:25	12
9	Lugano	9	3	1	1	4	33:31	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bern
Swiss National League Hockey
10.01.26	Biel - Bern	1:2 ✺
09.01.26	Bern - Ambrì-Piotta	0:1 penalties ✺
06.01.26	EHC Kloten - Bern	2:3 ✺
03.01.26	Bern - Genève-Servette	0:3 ✺
02.01.26	Ajoie - Bern	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWLW
- HC Lugano
Swiss National League Hockey
14.01.26	EV Zug - Lugano	2:3 ✺
08.01.26	Genève-Servette - Lugano	2:1 OT ✺
07.01.26	Lausanne HC - Lugano	2:5 ✺
03.01.26	Lugano - Fribourg-Gottéron	3:2 ✺
02.01.26	Biel - Lugano	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss National League Hockey
07.12.25	Lugano - Bern	3:1
24.10.25	Bern - Lugano	1:4
23.09.25	Lugano - Bern	0:3
14.02.25	Lugano - Bern	1:3
02.01.25	Bern - Lugano	1:4
29.10.24	Bern - Lugano	1:3
24.09.24	Lugano - Bern	6:4

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