Match Info

AHL

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: CAA Arena (Belleville, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Belleville Senators		Providence Bruins

	1	X	2
	3.25	4.33	1.75	Watch
	3.25	4.15	1.88
	3.2	4.07	1.88
	3.13	4.34	1.91	Watch
	3.21	4.15	1.87	Watch
	3.05	4	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (3.1)	4.17 ↓ (4.3)	1.86 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belleville Senators
28.8%

Draw
21.9%

Providence Bruins
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

21.5%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

20.8%

50.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belleville Senators has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Providence Bruins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Belleville Senators aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Providence Bruins than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Belleville (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Parsons J. (G)	34. Zajicek S. (G)
5. Bongiovanni W.	47. Abate J. (A)
13. Bourgault X.	17. Bancroft D.
4. Crotty C. (A)	38. Brown P. (C)
10. Daoust P.	42. Brunet F.
11. Donovan J.	11. Duran R.
8. Duarte M.	16. Element S.
34. Halliday S.	26. Farinacci J.
29. Hamara T.	9. Felix C.
14. Harrington S.	24. Gallagher T.
24. Jenik J. (A)	72. Harrison B.
43. Kaliyev A.	43. Locmelis D.
15. Lycksell O.	22. Lysell F.
22. Pilon G. (C)	12. Perreault J.
19. Rees J.	21. Poitras M.
33. Thomson L.	8. Schmaltz J.
44. Toure D.	29. Soderstrom V.
27. Washkurak K.	6. Sweezey B. (A)
26. Yakemchuk C.	86. Wolanin C.
Substitutes
40. Sogaard M. (G)	30. DiPietro M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
06:42, 0 - 1, Schmaltz J. (G), Abate J. (A), Sweezey B. (A2)
09:08, 1 - 1, Bongiovanni W. (G), Jenik J. (A), Pilon G. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 4)
06:01, 1 - 2, Soderstrom V. (G), Schmaltz J. (A), Duran R. (A2)
08:21, 1 - 3, Lysell F. (G),
09:55, 1 - 4, Brunet F. (G), Lysell F. (A), Perreault J. (A2)
14:14, 1 - 5, Duran R. (G), Schmaltz J. (A), Abate J. (A2)
15:56, 2 - 5, Bourgault X. (G), Pilon G. (A),
3rd Period (2 - 1)
08:38, 3 - 5, Kaliyev A. (G), Bourgault X. (A), Halliday S. (A2)
14:06, 4 - 5, Lycksell O. (G), Pilon G. (A), Harrington S. (A2)
19:59, 4 - 6, Poitras M. (G), Schmaltz J. (A),

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Belleville won 2.

Belleville has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Providence has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Belleville may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Belleville has had a series of away games.

Providence could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Belleville won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 36:44. (average 2.8:3.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Belleville won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:25. (average 3:3.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Belleville Senators - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.83%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Providence Bruins - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 48.67%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Belleville Senators
AHL
29.11.25	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	3:6 ✺
26.11.25	Manitoba Moose - Belleville Senators	5:1 ✺
25.11.25	Manitoba Moose - Belleville Senators	2:5 ✺
22.11.25	Laval Rocket - Belleville Senators	7:2 ✺
21.11.25	Laval Rocket - Belleville Senators	4:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLL
- Providence Bruins
AHL
29.11.25	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	3:6 ✺
26.11.25	Toronto Marlies - Providence Bruins	1:5 ✺
22.11.25	Providence Bruins - Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins	0:1 ✺
21.11.25	Providence Bruins - Lehigh Valley Phantoms	3:2 ✺
16.11.25	Providence Bruins - Laval Rocket	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

AHL
29.11.25	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	3:6
12.04.25	Providence Bruins - Belleville Senators	4:3 OT
30.10.24	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	2:3 penalties
09.03.22	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	4:1
10.12.21	Providence Bruins - Belleville Senators	1:4
27.10.19	Providence Bruins - Belleville Senators	3:4
19.10.19	Belleville Senators - Providence Bruins	4:7

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