Match Info

AHL

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Coca-Cola Coliseum (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Toronto Marlies		Providence Bruins

	1	X	2
	3	4	1.91	Watch
	3	4.1	1.99	Watch
	2.95	4.05	1.99
	3.57	4.22	1.79	Watch
	3.23	4.05	1.88	Watch
	3.1	4	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↓ (3.57)	4.07 ↓ (4.22)	1.9 ↑ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Marlies
29.2%

Draw
22.6%

Providence Bruins
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

22%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

21.7%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Marlies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Providence Bruins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto Marlies than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Providence Bruins than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	80%	0%

Toronto Marlies - Providence Bruins Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
70. Akhtyamov A. (G)	30. DiPietro M. (G)
48. Baddock B.	47. Abate J.
68. Barbolini M.	17. Bancroft D.
72. Boyd T. (A)	38. Brown P. (C)
58. Chadwick N.	42. Brunet F.
29. Groulx B.	11. Duran R.
43. Haymes L.	93. Edward J.
71. Lettieri V.	26. Farinacci J.
92. Nylander A.	72. Harrison B.
56. Pare C.	15. Johansson L.
61. Pezzetta M.	43. Locmelis D.
97. Sharpe C.	22. Lysell F.
11. Shaw L. (C)	10. Merkulov G. (A)
59. Smith B.	12. Perreault J.
3. Thrun H. (A)	21. Poitras M.
77. Tverberg R.	8. Schmaltz J.
39. Valis B.	29. Soderstrom V.
76. Villeneuve W.	6. Sweezey B. (A)
52. Webber C.	86. Wolanin C.
Substitutes
50. Peksa V. (G)	34. Zajicek S. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
07:03, 0 - 1, Lysell F. (G), Merkulov G. (A), Brown P. (A2)
12:15, 0 - 2, Brown P. (G), Locmelis D. (A), Wolanin C. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
16:56, 0 - 3, Lysell F. (G), Wolanin C. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
06:25, 1 - 3, Shaw L. (G), Smith B. (A), Boyd T. (A2)
11:53, 1 - 4, Merkulov G. (G),
15:42, 1 - 5, Locmelis D. (G), Merkulov G. (A), Wolanin C. (A2)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Toronto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Providence has had a series of home games.

Providence might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 44:50. (average 3.1:3.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:25. (average 3.4:3.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Marlies
AHL
23.11.25	Toronto Marlies - Iowa Wild	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Toronto Marlies - Iowa Wild	7:2 ✺
19.11.25	Belleville Senators - Toronto Marlies	4:0 ✺
14.11.25	Grand Rapids Griffins - Toronto Marlies	5:2 ✺
12.11.25	Grand Rapids Griffins - Toronto Marlies	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLL
- Providence Bruins
AHL
22.11.25	Providence Bruins - Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins	0:1 ✺
21.11.25	Providence Bruins - Lehigh Valley Phantoms	3:2 ✺
16.11.25	Providence Bruins - Laval Rocket	0:2 ✺
15.11.25	Providence Bruins - Utica Comets	3:2 OT ✺
12.11.25	Providence Bruins - Hartford Wolf Pack	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

AHL
12.03.25	Toronto Marlies - Providence Bruins	4:2
07.03.25	Providence Bruins - Toronto Marlies	5:2
20.12.23	Toronto Marlies - Providence Bruins	7:3
15.12.23	Providence Bruins - Toronto Marlies	2:8
08.03.22	Toronto Marlies - Providence Bruins	1:4
12.12.21	Providence Bruins - Toronto Marlies	5:1
15.02.19	Providence Bruins - Toronto Marlies	3:1

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