Match Info

NHL

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NHL Network, Victory+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Dallas Stars		Toronto Maple Leafs

	1	X	2
	1.74	4.5	3.8	Watch
	1.78	4.2	3.6
	1.77	4.09	4.09
	1.73	4.64	3.85	Watch
	1.8	4.5	3.75
	1.85	4.77	3.57
	1.76	4.4	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.99)	4.44 ↑ (4.16)	3.77 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dallas Stars
53.5%

Draw
21.4%

Toronto Maple Leafs
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

22.7%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

21.7%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dallas Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dallas Stars's performance.

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dallas Stars than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.6%	13%	17.4%

Dallas Stars - Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Dallas will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Toronto will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dallas: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Dallas Stars will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
29. Oettinger J. (G)	35. Hildeby D. (G)
4. Heiskanen M. (A)	51. Myers P.
23. Lindell E. (A)	44. Rielly M. (A)
14. Benn Ja. (C)	18. Lorentz S.
24. Hintz R.	34. Matthews A. (C)
21. Robertson J.	23. Knies M.
Line 2
5. Lundkvist N.	28. Stecher T.
55. Harley T.	22. McCabe J.
96. Rantanen M.	88. Nylander W.
53. Johnston W.	91. Tavares J. (A)
95. Duchene M.	63. Maccelli M.
Line 3
46. Lyubushkin I.	95. Ekman-Larsson O.
28. Petrovic A.	2. Benoit S.
22. Bourque M.	74. McMann B.
18. Steel S.	55. Roy N.
49. Hryckowian J.	89. Robertson N.
Line 4
15. Blackwell C.	11. Domi M.
12. Faksa R.	24. Laughton S.
10. Back O.	81. Joshua D.
Substitutes
1. DeSmith C. (G)	60. Woll J. (G)
Coaches
. Gulutzan G.	. Berube C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
16:15, Heiskanen M. (2 min),
18:30, 1 - 0, Robertson J. (G), Back O. (A), Faksa R. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
01:54, Maccelli M. (2 min),
03:31, Robertson J. (2 min),
10:17, Tavares J. (2 min),
14:31, Lyubushkin I. (2 min),
17:05, Harley T. (2 min),
3rd Period (4 - 1)
05:03, 2 - 0, Steel S. (G), Lyubushkin I. (A), Rantanen M. (A2)
08:39, 2 - 1, Laughton S. (G), Rielly M. (A),
12:10, 3 - 1, Benn Ja. (G), Heiskanen M. (A), Lindell E. (A2)
17:55, 4 - 1, Bourque M. (G), Lindell E. (A), Oettinger J. (A2)
19:44, 5 - 1, Hryckowian J. (G), Harley T. (A), Petrovic A. (A2)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 1.

Dallas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Toronto has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Dallas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Dallas is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Dallas: Bichsel L. (Lower-Body Injury) Seguin T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Toronto: Carlo B. (Lower-Body Injury) Mermis D. (Lower-Body Injury) Stolarz A. (Upper-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Toronto: Tanev C. (Upper-Body Injury)

We predict that Dallas will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 48:77. (average 2.4:3.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Dallas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:43. (average 2.3:4.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Dallas Stars - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 47.48%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dallas Stars
NHL
19.12.25	Anaheim Ducks - Dallas Stars	3:8 ✺
18.12.25	San Jose Sharks - Dallas Stars	3:5 ✺
15.12.25	Dallas Stars - Los Angeles Kings	4:1 ✺
13.12.25	Dallas Stars - Florida Panthers	0:4 ✺
11.12.25	Minnesota Wild - Dallas Stars	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWLL
- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
20.12.25	Nashville Predators - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:3 ✺
18.12.25	Washington Capitals - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:0 ✺
16.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Chicago Blackhawks	3:2 ✺
13.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Edmonton Oilers	3:6 ✺
11.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - San Jose Sharks	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
14.01.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Dallas Stars	1:4
18.12.24	Dallas Stars - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:5
07.02.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Dallas Stars	5:4
26.10.23	Dallas Stars - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:4
06.12.22	Dallas Stars - Toronto Maple Leafs	0:4
20.10.22	Toronto Maple Leafs - Dallas Stars	3:2 OT
07.04.22	Dallas Stars - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT

Dallas Stars - Toronto Maple Leafs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide