Match Info

RUSSIA: NMHL

Date: 8 November 2024, Friday


	Ermak Angarsk		Kaluga

	1	X	2
	1.71	4.75	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (2.5)	4.75 ↑ (4.5)	3.4 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ermak Angarsk
53.7%

Draw
19.3%

Kaluga
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

20.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

20.5%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ermak Angarsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ermak Angarsk's performance.

Kaluga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kaluga might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ermak Angarsk than the current prediction. (-16.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ermak Angarsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaluga than the current prediction. (+15.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kaluga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ermak Angarsk - Kaluga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
03:26, 1 - 0, Berdashkevich I. (G), Chernykh D. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
14:09, 2 - 0, Deshkunov A. (G), Starovoitov A. (A),
3rd Period (0 - 2)
01:55, 2 - 1, Khandiy N. (G), Yusupov V. (A),
15:46, 2 - 2, Kuznetsov A. (G), Novikov D. (A),
Overtime (1 - 0)
00:43, 3 - 2, Valiakhmetov R. (G), Zakharov Z. (A),

Preview

Ermak is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Kaluga in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Kaluga could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Ermak have a series of guest games.

Recently Kaluga have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ermak Angarsk
RHL
07.11.24	Ermak Angarsk - Kaluga	8:2 ✺
27.10.24	Hors Podolsk - Ermak Angarsk	4:1 ✺
26.10.24	Hors Podolsk - Ermak Angarsk	2:3 ✺
10.10.24	Metallurg Cherepovets - Ermak Angarsk	4:5 penalties ✺
09.10.24	Metallurg Cherepovets - Ermak Angarsk	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWWW
- MHK Kaluga
RHL
07.11.24	Ermak Angarsk - Kaluga	8:2 ✺
31.10.24	Kaluga - Metallurg Cherepovets	5:4 ✺
30.10.24	Kaluga - Metallurg Cherepovets	7:3 ✺
26.10.24	Kaluga - Polyot Rybinsk	6:3 ✺
25.10.24	Kaluga - Polyot Rybinsk	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

RHL
07.11.24	Ermak Angarsk - Kaluga	8:2

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