Match Info

Liiga - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	HPK		Tappara

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.2	1.67
	4.6	4	1.69	Watch
	4.5	4.05	1.71
	4.54	4.18	1.65	Watch
	4.43	4.33	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.51 ↑ (4.13)	4.15 ↑ (3.86)	1.67 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK
20.9%

Draw
22.7%

Tappara
56.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

24.2%

53.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

21.9%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Tappara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tappara than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tappara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

HPK - Tappara Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tappara will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5, OT - Tappara (1.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tappara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Saarinen K. (G)	30. Heljanko C. (G)
43. Kukkonen M.	21. Matinmikko A.
4. Jokirinne V.	23. Jokipakka J.
88. Kiiskinen J.	11. Simontaival K.
12. Paivarinta S.	20. Keskinen O.
94. Hakulinen A. (A)	27. Tanus K.
Line 2
63. Eronen E.	44. Juolevi O.
20. Pyke G.	26. Mattila Je.
92. Toivonen V.	88. Blichfeld J.
15. Korhonen O.	22. Rasanen A.
11. Caron T.	78. Rautiainen B.
Line 3
5. Andzans A.	63. Tuulola J. (A)
74. Nikkila P. (C)	6. Brickley D.
25. Huttunen H.	82. Tuulola E.
23. Loponen M.	42. Rauhala O. (C)
10. Vesterinen R.	25. Haapala H.
Line 4
3. Kangas K.	17. Pavel O.
50. Skinnari A.	24. Addamo J.
64. Kainulainen H. (A)	62. Mattila Ju. (A)
8. Alitalo V.	51. Sylvegard E.
Substitutes
33. Vayrynen M. (G)	77. Metsola J. (G)
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Gronborg R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 3)
00:13, 0 - 1, Tuulola E. (G), Rauhala O. (A), Haapala H. (A2)
01:42, Nikkila P. (2 min),
03:14, 0 - 2, Blichfeld J. (G), Brickley D. (A), Rautiainen B. (A2)
03:14, Rasanen A. (2 min),
04:21, 1 - 2, Jokirinne V. (G), Toivonen V. (A), Korhonen O. (A2)
19:20, 1 - 3, Blichfeld J. (G), Rautiainen B. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
08:52, Blichfeld J. (2 min),
08:52, Eronen E. (2 min),
13:33, Tuulola E. (2 min),
14:01, Jokipakka J. (2 min),
17:02, 2 - 3, Paivarinta S. (G), Hakulinen A. (A), Kiiskinen J. (A2)
18:06, 3 - 3, Korhonen O. (G), Nikkila P. (A), Kainulainen H. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
10:27, 3 - 4, Mattila Je. (G), Tanus K. (A), Keskinen O. (A2)

Preview

Tappara leads series 2-1. Fourth leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

HPK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tappara is considered a favorite.

We predict that HPK will win today's game, with odds of 4.47.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 40:65. (average 2:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:33. (average 2.4:3.3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Tappara: 25.28% Hameenlinna: 2.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
9	Tappara	11	5	2	0	4	32:24	19
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18

Last Results with these Odds

Tappara - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 53.13%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
02.04.26	Tappara - HPK	3:1 ✺
30.03.26	HPK - Tappara	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Tappara - HPK	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	HPK - Lukko	4:1 ✺
23.03.26	Lukko - HPK	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 LWLWW
- Tappara hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
02.04.26	Tappara - HPK	3:1 ✺
30.03.26	HPK - Tappara	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Tappara - HPK	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	HPK - Tappara	3:2 OT ✺
14.03.26	SaiPa - Tappara	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
02.04.26	Tappara - HPK	3:1
30.03.26	HPK - Tappara	2:1
28.03.26	Tappara - HPK	2:1
17.03.26	HPK - Tappara	3:2 OT
05.01.26	Tappara - HPK	2:1
05.12.25	HPK - Tappara	1:3
04.10.25	Tappara - HPK	2:4

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