Match Info

Liiga - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 March 2026, Monday

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Lukko		HPK

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.2	4.2
	1.74	3.9	4.45	Watch
	1.72	4	4.31
	1.73	3.93	4.34	Watch
	1.7	4	3.8
	1.74	4.25	3.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.75)	4.05 ↑ (3.82)	4.18 ↓ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko
54.4%

Draw
23.2%

HPK
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

24.5%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

26%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lukko - HPK Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Lukko will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. HPK (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 8.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 8.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Lukko (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5, OT - Lukko (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Lukko (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lukko (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Lukko (votes: 4 - 80%). HPK (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Ortio J. (G)	1. Saarinen K. (G)
9. Stenqvist J.	43. Kukkonen M.
38. Almari N.	4. Jokirinne V.
16. Beaucage A.	16. Wright C.
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	12. Paivarinta S.
24. Krannila J.	94. Hakulinen A. (A)
Line 2
86. Gelinas E. (C)	63. Eronen E.
5. Peters A.	20. Pyke G.
88. Morand A.	88. Kiiskinen J.
21. Ford C.	15. Korhonen O.
18. Jandric S.	11. Caron T.
Line 3
34. Viitasalo N.	74. Nikkila P. (C)
56. Olsson A.	5. Andzans A.
27. Westerholm Po.	44. Kopiloff O.
14. Intonen A.	25. Huttunen H.
25. Saarela A.	10. Vesterinen R.
Line 4
40. Daschke D.	3. Kangas K.
48. Ikonen H. (A)	50. Skinnari A.
17. Westerholm Pa.	64. Kainulainen H. (A)
47. Haapanen T.	8. Alitalo V.
Substitutes
30. Salonen D. (G)	33. Vayrynen M. (G)
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Manner M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
17:51, Peters A. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
00:18, Intonen A. (2 min),
05:13, 1 - 0, Haapanen T. (G), Gelinas E. (A), Westerholm Pa. (A2)
05:56, Alitalo V. (2 min),
13:31, Gelinas E. (2 min),
17:57, Paivarinta S. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 3)
03:12, 1 - 1, Wright C. (G), Hakulinen A. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
06:55, 1 - 2, Kiiskinen J. (G), Korhonen O. (A),
19:15, 1 - 3, Kangas K. (G),

Preview

Series tied 1-1. Third leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Lukko is the team to beat.

We predict that Lukko will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 54:34. (average 2.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:13. (average 3.1:1.3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 2.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
21.03.26	HPK - Lukko	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Lukko - HPK	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Lukko - KalPa	6:5 OT ✺
14.03.26	Lukko - Ilves	4:1 ✺
13.03.26	Tappara - Lukko	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWWL
- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
21.03.26	HPK - Lukko	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Lukko - HPK	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	HPK - Tappara	3:2 OT ✺
14.03.26	HPK - Pelicans	1:4 ✺
13.03.26	Pelicans - HPK	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
21.03.26	HPK - Lukko	2:0
20.03.26	Lukko - HPK	2:1
31.01.26	HPK - Lukko	0:1 OT
20.12.25	Lukko - HPK	4:2
29.11.25	HPK - Lukko	1:2 penalties
19.09.25	Lukko - HPK	6:0
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
15.08.25	Lukko - HPK	1:2 OT

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