Match Info
Liiga - Play Offs - 1/8-finalsDate: 24 March 2026, TuesdayLocation: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
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HPK |
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Lukko |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
2.3 |
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 |
2.92 |
3.5 |
2.35 |
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 |
3.1 |
3.85 |
2.32 |
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 |
3.11 |
3.87 |
2.07 |
 Watch |
 |
2.63 |
3.7 |
2.25 |
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 |
2.77 |
3.88 |
2.25 |
Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.89 ↑
(2.84) |
3.75 ↓
(3.88) |
2.26 ↑
(2.17) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 4.50
- The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
HPK
32.8% | Draw
25.3% | Lukko
42% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
HPK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)Lukko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-1.1%)Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Lukko (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5, OT - Lukko (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- EH -1 - Lukko (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Lukko (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Lukko (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Lukko (votes: 15 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3 
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Lineups
| Line 1 |
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1.  Saarinen K. (G)
| 30. Salonen D. (G)
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43. Kukkonen M.
| 9.  Stenqvist J.
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4. Jokirinne V.
| 38. Almari N.
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16.  Wright C.
| 16. Beaucage A.
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12. Paivarinta S.
| 93. Ruohomaa M. (A)
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94. Hakulinen A. (A)
| 25. Saarela A.
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| Line 2 |
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63. Eronen E.
| 86. Gelinas E. (C)
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20. Pyke G.
| 5. Peters A.
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88. Kiiskinen J.
| 88. Morand A.
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15. Korhonen O.
| 21.  Ford C.
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11. Caron T.
| 18. Jandric S.
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| Line 3 |
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74. Nikkila P. (C)
| 34. Viitasalo N.
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5.  Andzans A.
| 56. Olsson A.
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44. Kopiloff O.
| 27. Westerholm Po.
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25. Huttunen H.
| 14. Intonen A.
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10. Vesterinen R.
| 90. Hamalainen L.
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| Line 4 |
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3. Kangas K.
| 40. Daschke D.
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50. Skinnari A.
| 48. Ikonen H. (A)
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64. Kainulainen H. (A)
| 24. Krannila J.
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8. Alitalo V.
| 47. Haapanen T.
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| Substitutes |
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33. Vayrynen M. (G)
| 31. Ortio J. (G)
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| Coaches |
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. Manner M.
| . Lamsa T.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Period (1 - 0)
- 12:38, 1 - 0, Wright C. (G),
- 19:44, Hakulinen A. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (2 - 0)
- 05:48, Westerholm Po. (2 min),
- 06:16, 2 - 0, Paivarinta S. (G), Wright C. (A), Nikkila P. (A2)
- 15:33, 3 - 0, Caron T. (G), Kiiskinen J. (A), Kainulainen H. (A2)
- 3rd Period (1 - 1)
- 09:17, Ford C. (2 min),
- 13:27, Jokirinne V. (2 min),
- 14:43, 3 - 1, Stenqvist J. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Beaucage A. (A2)
- 16:37, 4 - 1, Hakulinen A. (G), Wright C. (A), Kukkonen M. (A2)
Preview
Hameenlinna leads series 2-1. Fourth leg.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 2.Both teams have been playing unpredictably.Recently, Lukko has had a series of home games. In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 35:53. (average 1.8:2.7).Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 2.1:2.3).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Finnish SM-liiga | | | 23.03.26 | Lukko - HPK | 1:3 | | 21.03.26 | HPK - Lukko | 2:0 | | 20.03.26 | Lukko - HPK | 2:1 | | 31.01.26 | HPK - Lukko | 0:1 OT | | 20.12.25 | Lukko - HPK | 4:2 | | 29.11.25 | HPK - Lukko | 1:2 penalties | | 19.09.25 | Lukko - HPK | 6:0 |
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