Match Info

Mestis

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Kokkolan jäähalli (Kokkola)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Hermes Kokkola		TuTo

	1	X	2
	2.18	4.20	2.40
	2.29	4.25	2.45
	2.36	4.05	2.3
	2.34	4.49	2.39	Watch
	2.3	4	2.25
	2.33	4.15	2.35
	2.27	4.1	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.12)	4.18 ↑ (4.11)	2.37 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hermes Kokkola
39.7%

Draw
21.8%

TuTo
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

22.1%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

23%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hermes Kokkola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

TuTo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hermes Kokkola than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TuTo than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Hermes Kokkola - TuTo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
79. Saarinen K. (G)	70. Anttila E. (G)
77. Ahola A. (A)	62. Kulmala F.
5. Tikkanen T.	46. Kiukas P.
86. Maki E.	15. Markkula S. (C)
51. Vahatalo J. (C)	11. Valila E.
92. Toivonen V.	22. Karnaranta V.
Line 2
43. Heinonen O.	48. Happonen E.
33. Monkkonen M.	5. Rikkila H.
10. Takala E.	94. Nordgren N.
45. Ekman T.	71. Turunen R. (A)
21. Hult O.	19. Korhonen J. (A)
Line 3
4. Lehtinen E.	3. Vuorinen V.
6. Lauri O.	44. Vuori T.
22. Aaltonen J.	90. Turppa T.
73. Niinisto J.	34. Hameenaho V.
24. Pennanen A.	21. Juhola J.
Line 4
16. Cederberg E. (A)	33. Nummelin R.
97. Vesaaja J.	51. Rannikko O.
53. Ulvila A.	72. Huumo V.
46. Honkasalo J.	14. Lindholm V.
Substitutes
30. Ahopelto J. (G)	37. Raikka E. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
09:22, 0 - 1, Valila E. (G), Karnaranta V. (A), Markkula S. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
08:16, 0 - 2, Turunen R. (G), Nordgren N. (A), Korhonen J. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
17:52, 0 - 3, Markkula S. (G), Valila E. (A),
19:43, 0 - 4, Valila E. (G), Karnaranta V. (A), Markkula S. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hermes won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Hermes could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Hermes has recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 52:63 (averaging 2.6:3.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hermes against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 34:30 goals (averaging 3.4:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	Hermes	8	2	1	2	3	22:25	10

Last Results with these Odds

TuTo - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.18%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hermes Kokkola
Finnish Mestis
12.09.26	RoKi - Hermes Kokkola	5:0 ✺
11.09.26	Hermes Kokkola - KeuPa	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
28.08.26	IPK - Hermes Kokkola	5:1 ✺
27.08.26	Hermes Kokkola - RoKi	6:3
13.08.26	Hermes Kokkola - IPK	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWLWL
- TuTo
Finnish Mestis
18.09.26	RoKi - TuTo	4:3 penalties ✺
12.09.26	Kiekko-Vantaa - TuTo	4:1 ✺
11.09.26	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	4:3 OT ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	KeuPa - TuTo	3:8 ✺
26.08.26	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	2:5
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
27.02.26	TuTo - Hermes Kokkola	5:2
19.12.25	Hermes Kokkola - TuTo	2:0
24.10.25	Hermes Kokkola - TuTo	4:2
17.10.25	TuTo - Hermes Kokkola	3:1
19.09.25	Hermes Kokkola - TuTo	4:3
01.03.25	Hermes Kokkola - TuTo	7:4
21.02.25	TuTo - Hermes Kokkola	3:1

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