Match Info

Liiga - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Location: Tampere Deck Arena (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Ilves		Tappara

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.8	2.35
	2.7	3.5	2.55
	2.65	3.65	2.44
	2.66	3.67	2.41
	2.5	3.7	2.38
	2.53	3.94	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.41)	3.71 ↓ (3.79)	2.42 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
35.9%

Draw
25.3%

Tappara
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

24.8%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

27.7%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Tappara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ilves, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tappara than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tappara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Ilves - Tappara Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tappara will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
39. Pavlat D. (G)	30. Heljanko C. (G)
23. Johansson S.	15. Andersson J.
57. Parikka J.	23. Jokipakka J.
46. Torok M.	11. Simontaival K.
12. Mantykivi M.	20. Keskinen O.
92. Henman L.	27. Tanus K. (A)
Line 2
53. Pelli A.	21. Matinmikko A.
28. Nyberg J.	26. Mattila Je.
29. Looke J.	88. Blichfeld J.
9. Jasek L.	22. Rasanen A.
15. Kos O.	78. Rautiainen B.
Line 3
43. Latvala O.	63. Tuulola J. (A)
3. Utunen T. (A)	6. Brickley D.
89. Quenneville P.	82. Tuulola E.
11. Borg E.	62. Mattila Ju. (C)
22. Engberg T.	25. Haapala H.
Line 4
5. Niskanen A.	17. Pavel O.
48. Klingberg C. (A)	24. Addamo J.
86. Nattinen J. (C)	51. Sylvegard E.
20. Bjorkqvist K.
Substitutes
40. Armalis M. (G)	77. Metsola J. (G)
	41. Nykanen J.
Coaches
. Niemela T.	. Gronborg R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (3 - 0)
01:43, 1 - 0, Jasek L. (G), Kos O. (A), Utunen T. (A2)
01:43, Haapala H. (2 min),
05:02, 2 - 0, Engberg T. (G), Borg E. (A),
11:26, 3 - 0, Henman L. (G), Nyberg J. (A), Torok M. (A2)
15:21, Kos O. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 3)
03:03, Klingberg C. (2 min),
04:49, 3 - 1, Tanus K. (G), Jokipakka J. (A), Blichfeld J. (A2)
08:03, 3 - 2, Simontaival K. (G), Tuulola J. (A), Mattila Ju. (A2)
09:55, 3 - 3, Jokipakka J. (G), Nykanen J. (A),
09:55, Quenneville P. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
03:54, 3 - 4, Brickley D. (G), Blichfeld J. (A), Tuulola J. (A2)
12:19, Klingberg C. (2 min),

Preview

Tappara leads series 3-2. Sixth leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 55:47. (average 2.8:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 3.1:2.6).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Tappara: 25.28%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Ilves	12	8	1	0	3	36:24	26
9	Tappara	11	5	2	0	4	32:24	19

Last Results with these Odds

Ilves - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.97%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilves hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
25.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	2:1 OT ✺
23.04.26	Ilves - Tappara	1:5 ✺
21.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Ilves - Tappara	6:0 ✺
16.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLLWW
- Tappara hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
25.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	2:1 OT ✺
23.04.26	Ilves - Tappara	1:5 ✺
21.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Ilves - Tappara	6:0 ✺
16.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
25.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	2:1 OT
23.04.26	Ilves - Tappara	1:5
21.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	3:2
19.04.26	Ilves - Tappara	6:0
16.04.26	Tappara - Ilves	2:3
06.03.26	Ilves - Tappara	4:3 OT
13.02.26	Tappara - Ilves	4:1

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