Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Ilves U20		SaiPa U20

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.70	4.10
	1.65	4.31	3.73
	1.49	5.1	4.46	Watch
	1.63	4.25	3.65
	1.59	4.75	3.88
	1.53	4.40	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.48)	4.59 ↓ (5.2)	4 ↓ (4.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves U20
57.9%

Draw
19.6%

SaiPa U20
22.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.2%

17.7%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7%

18.9%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

SaiPa U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves U20 than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa U20 than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Ilves U20 - SaiPa U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
12:43, 0 - 1, Inna A. (G), Salonaho J. (A), Nummi L. (A2)
2nd Period (3 - 1)
00:24, 1 - 1, Koponen A. (G), Melanen J. (A), Kuitunen O. (A2)
11:35, 1 - 2, Eloranta O. (G), Marik N. (A),
12:09, 2 - 2, Myllyniemi M. (G), Petaja K. (A), Kuukasjarvi R. (A2)
14:12, 3 - 2, Myllyniemi M. (G), Poikela M. (A), Nyberg J. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
17:53, 4 - 2, Rinne R. (G), Myllyniemi M. (A), Kuukasjarvi R. (A2)
19:59, 5 - 2, Tormakangas J. (G), Svenn A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves U20 won 5.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

SaiPa U20 may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Ilves U20 is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Ilves U20 in today's match, at odds of 1.46.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ilves U20 has recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 64:61 (averaging 3.2:3.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ilves U20 against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with 29:40 goals (averaging 2.4:3.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
13	SaiPa U20	15	5	2	2	6	51:54	21
14	Ilves U20	15	6	1	1	7	53:60	21

Last Results with these Odds

SaiPa U20 - the odds 4.59 are the expected chance of winning is 20.06%, but this team recently wins 7% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilves U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
14.10.26	Pelicans U20 - Ilves U20	5:2 ✺
10.10.26	Ilves U20 - Lukko U20	1:4 ✺
09.10.26	Ilves U20 - Kärpät U20	5:3 ✺
02.10.26	Kiekko-Espoo U20 - Ilves U20	2:3 ✺
27.09.26	Ässät U20 - Ilves U20	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LLWWW
- SaiPa U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
16.10.26	Tappara U20 - SaiPa U20	3:7 ✺
11.10.26	Jokerit U20 - SaiPa U20	1:5 ✺
10.10.26	SaiPa U20 - Pelicans U20	2:5 ✺
09.10.26	HIFK U20 - SaiPa U20	5:0 ✺
02.10.26	SaiPa U20 - KalPa U20	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
14.02.26	SaiPa U20 - Ilves U20	4:9
13.12.25	Ilves U20 - SaiPa U20	4:1
22.02.25	SaiPa U20 - Ilves U20	2:6
20.12.24	Ilves U20 - SaiPa U20	6:1
17.02.24	Ilves U20 - SaiPa U20	4:3
24.11.23	SaiPa U20 - Ilves U20	4:2
24.09.23	Ilves U20 - SaiPa U20	1:3

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